Indian Stock Market: Key Overnight Changes
The Indian stock market is expected to react to a mix of global and domestic cues, showing initial signs of a cautious opening. Several factors have shifted overnight, influencing market sentiment, including Gift Nifty trends, developments in US-China trade relations, and fluctuations in gold prices.
1. Gift Nifty Indicates Mixed Signals
The Gift Nifty, an indicator of how the Indian stock market might perform, was trading with mixed signals. Trading around 26,250, it was slightly lower, hinting at a potentially subdued start for the Indian indices. This is in contrast to previous sessions where it signaled a strong positive opening. As of July 3, 2023, SGX Nifty was officially rebranded as Gift Nifty. This transformation marks a substantial move in derivative trade from the Singapore Exchange to the NSE International Exchange in Gandhinagar, Gujarat.
2. US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Sentiment
Escalating trade tensions between the US and China continue to be a significant concern for global markets. The US administration is reportedly considering new export restrictions targeting products made with or containing US-developed software as retaliation against China's curbs on rare earth exports. These measures could impact various industries, potentially escalating the trade war between the world's two largest economies. However, there are also reports of a confirmed meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month, which could ease trade tensions.
3. Wall Street's Reaction
Overnight, US stock markets experienced a downturn. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.71%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.53%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.93%. This was attributed to mixed corporate earnings and concerns about potential US trade restrictions on software exports to China.
4. Gold Prices Experience Volatility
Gold prices have shown considerable volatility. After hitting record highs, they fell for the third consecutive session as investors booked profits. Spot gold was trading around $4,090 an ounce, a 6% drop from its recent peak. However, geopolitical tensions and safe-haven buying have also supported a rebound in gold prices. As of October 23, 2025, MCX gold recovers from a recent dip, up ₹2,700 per 10 grams.
5. Crude Oil Prices Rise
Crude oil prices have been on the rise following US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. Brent crude soared 2.54% to $64.18 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading 2.58% higher at $59.93 per barrel.
6. India-US Trade Deal in Focus
Optimism surrounding a potential India-US trade deal is influencing market sentiment. Reports suggest that the US may cut import tariffs on Indian exports to 15-16% from the current 50% as India reduces its Russian oil imports. This could boost bilateral trade and attract foreign investors.
7. FII and DII Activity
On October 21, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers, purchasing Indian equities worth ₹96.72 crore. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net sellers, selling Indian equities worth ₹607.01 crore.
8. Technical Outlook
The Nifty 50 is expected to face strong resistance at 26,000. Support is seen at 25,800 and then at 25,700. Option data indicates heavy Call writing at 26,200–26,300 and strong Put support near 25,700–25,800, suggesting the index may consolidate within this range before a fresh breakout.
9. Key Stocks in Focus
Several stocks are expected to be in focus, including Ola Electric Mobility Ltd., Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd., Federal Bank Ltd., and LTIMindtree Ltd.
10. Overall Market Sentiment
Overall market sentiment is mixed, with caution prevailing due to global cues. Investors will be closely monitoring Q2FY26 earnings and developments related to the India-US trade deal for further direction.
