Bitcoin's potential for a dramatic surge is once again making headlines, with some analysts predicting a sixfold increase by 2026. This bullish outlook is fueled by comparisons to the COVID-19 pandemic era, a period marked by unprecedented expansion of the M2 money supply. The M2 money supply encompasses physical cash, checking and savings deposits, and other liquid assets.

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted central banks worldwide to implement aggressive monetary policies, including slashing interest rates and injecting massive amounts of liquidity into the global economy. This led to a surge in the M2 money supply. For example, in 2020, the Federal Reserve increased its balance sheet by 73%. Historically, Bitcoin's price has shown a notable correlation with the M2 money supply growth rate. The rapid expansion of M2 during the pandemic coincided with one of Bitcoin's most explosive bull markets, as investors sought it as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Bitcoin's rise from under $10,000 in mid-2020 to an all-time high of nearly $69,000 by November 2021 serves as a prime example.

Now, some analysts believe a similar pattern could emerge. The latest jump in M2 comes as central banks consider cutting interest rates. If the Federal Reserve opts to reduce interest rates, it could significantly impact the M2 money supply and, by extension, the crypto market. Lower interest rates typically lead to an increase in borrowing and spending, which can expand the M2 money supply. As more money flows into the economy, investors may turn to assets like Bitcoin, which is often viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.

If Bitcoin were to repeat its performance following the COVID-19 money printing spree, a sixfold increase from its current price could propel it to $500,000. However, it's important to note that this is just one potential scenario, and the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $109,800, down around 1.6% in the past 24 hours. The asset remains range-bound between $107,500 and $113,900, signaling uncertainty after retreating from its $125,000 peak earlier this month. Technical analysis reveals that Bitcoin's price action remains fragile as it hovers near the $107,800 support level. A sustained close above $108,500 could confirm a rebound toward $112,000–$115,000, while losing $107,000 may open the door to a deeper pullback toward the $104,000–$105,000 region.

Predictions for Bitcoin's price in 2026 vary. One forecast estimates that Bitcoin will trade between $109,055 and $144,827 in 2026. Another projects a range of $150,000 to $230,000. Still, other analyses suggest that after clearing $121,000, Bitcoin could challenge higher resistance bands in the $125,000–$130,000 range. Macro risks like policy shifts or geopolitical events could induce temporary corrections toward $100,000.

While the comparison to the COVID-19 era M2 money supply boom offers an intriguing perspective, it's crucial to consider other factors that could influence Bitcoin's price, including market sentiment, regulatory developments, and technological advancements.