Deloitte India projects India's GDP to grow between 6.7% and 6.9% in fiscal year 2026, averaging 6.8% for the year. This revised forecast marks a 0.3 percentage point increase from Deloitte's previous estimate, highlighting the nation's resilience and potential for strong economic performance. The projected growth aligns with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecast of 6.8% for FY26.

The positive outlook is attributed to several factors, including strong domestic demand, accommodative monetary policy, and ongoing structural reforms like GST 2.0. Deloitte anticipates that lower inflation will boost consumer spending as purchasing power increases. Strategic global trade initiatives are also expected to play a significant role.

Deloitte India Economist Rumki Majumdar anticipates a surge in consumption spending during the festive quarter, followed by robust private investment as businesses respond to and prepare for sustained high demand. The expectation of India securing trade deals with the US and the EU by the end of the year is also expected to boost overall investment sentiment. Majumdar emphasized that strong growth in the first and third quarters is likely to be a major driver of overall annual growth.

However, the report also cautions about potential risks to India's economic growth. Escalating trade uncertainties and the failure to secure a trade deal with the United States could negatively impact the economy. Restrictions on access to critical minerals and higher inflation in Western countries could also lead to increased inflationary pressures within India. Deloitte advises that India needs to monitor its trade exposure and prepare for the potential consequences of geopolitical instability.

Despite these challenges, Deloitte remains optimistic about India's long-term economic prospects. They noted that India's capital markets remain strong. With a growing number of middle- and high-income households, India is on track to become one of the world's largest consumer markets by 2030. The Indian economy's growth trajectory stands out in the current global landscape, driven by resilient capital markets, a dynamic consumer base, and a globally competitive workforce.