As Bihar gears up for its next Assembly elections, due in two phases on November 6 and 11, 2025, political dynamics are heating up within both the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan. Within the Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), a key development has been the projection of Mukesh Sahani, founder of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), as the alliance's Deputy Chief Ministerial face. This move is seen as a strategic attempt to broaden the Mahagathbandhan's appeal, particularly among the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) and the Nishad (fisherman) community. Meanwhile, questions linger about the Congress party's strength within the alliance, with some analysts and leaders suggesting it remains the "weakest link".
Sahani as Mahagathbandhan's Wildcard
Mukesh Sahani, often called the "Son of Mallah," has emerged as a significant political figure in Bihar, particularly for his influence over the Nishad community, which constitutes a notable portion of the state's voters. Sahani's political journey has been marked by shifting alliances. He initially supported the BJP in 2015 but later formed the VIP and aligned with the Mahagathbandhan. After unsuccessfully contesting the 2019 general elections as part of the Mahagathbandhan, he joined the NDA for the 2020 Bihar polls, winning four assembly seats and briefly serving as the Minister for Animal Husbandry & Fisheries. In 2022, he exited the NDA and rejoined the opposition bloc.
By naming Sahani as their Deputy CM candidate, the Mahagathbandhan aims to consolidate support among Bihar's fishermen and other backward communities, strengthening the alliance’s social base. This decision is also seen as an attempt to counter the NDA's appeal among EBC voters, who are considered a key support base for current Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
Congress: The Weakest Link?
While the Mahagathbandhan aims to present a united front, the Congress party's role within the alliance has come under scrutiny. In the 2020 Assembly elections, the Congress contested 70 seats but won only 19, a performance that led to criticism from within the Mahagathbandhan. Some leaders suggested that the Congress was allocated more seats than it could effectively handle, hindering the alliance's overall performance.
Despite increasing its vote share from 6.66% in 2015 to 9.5% in 2020, the Congress's strike rate remained a concern. The party's performance in the Seemanchal region, with a substantial Muslim population, was particularly disappointing. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) dented the Congress’s prospects by fielding candidates in these areas.
Internal dissent over ticket distribution has also raised concerns about the Congress's influence within the Mahagathbandhan. Some party workers have alleged that promises to prioritize youth and women in ticket allocation have not been honored.
Challenges and Opportunities
For the Mahagathbandhan, the key challenges include managing internal conflicts, seat sharing and presenting a cohesive narrative. The alliance's success hinges on effectively mobilizing its core voters and expanding its reach to new demographics. Tejashwi Yadav's leadership as the Chief Ministerial candidate is crucial in uniting the alliance and appealing to the state's youth.
The NDA, while seemingly more coordinated, faces its own set of challenges, including anti-incumbency and questions over Nitish Kumar's future as Chief Minister. The BJP's increasing assertiveness within the alliance could also lead to friction.
As Bihar heads towards the 2025 elections, the political landscape remains fluid. The Mahagathbandhan's bet on Mukesh Sahani as a wildcard and the concerns surrounding the Congress's strength highlight the complex dynamics at play. The outcome of the election will depend on the ability of both alliances to effectively address the state's pressing issues and connect with voters across caste and community lines.
