Hopes Rise for Altseason, but the Signals Aren’t There Yet

As October 2025 progresses, the cryptocurrency market is abuzz with anticipation of a potential altcoin season. After months of Bitcoin's dominance, analysts are pointing to technical patterns and market indicators that suggest altcoins could be on the verge of a major breakout. However, a closer look reveals a mixed bag of signals, leaving the crypto community wondering if the long-awaited altseason is truly on the horizon.

Defining Altseason and Key Indicators

Altseason, or altcoin season, is characterized by a period where altcoins outperform Bitcoin in terms of price gains. This typically occurs when Bitcoin stabilizes after a rally, allowing capital to flow into altcoins, which often have smaller market caps and higher risk/reward potential.

Several indicators are used to identify the onset of altseason:

• Bitcoin Dominance Decline: A drop in Bitcoin's dominance, which measures its market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap, often signals the start of altseason. Historically, a BTC.D level below 55%-60% has been a reliable indicator.
• Altcoin Season Index: This index tracks the performance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin. A reading above 75% suggests that most altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin.
• Increased Trading Volumes: Spikes in altcoin trading volumes and market cap growth are strong indicators of an ongoing altseason.
• Market Sentiment: Fear of missing out (FOMO), amplified by social media hype and retail investor interest, often drives altcoin rallies.
• Capital Flows: Monitoring capital flows from institutional and retail investors can provide insights into potential altcoin rallies.

Conflicting Signals in the Current Market

Several analysts have pointed out that the total market capitalization of altcoins is showing strong technical patterns, potentially signaling a significant move ahead. Altcoins recently broke through a major 3-year resistance level around the $1.46 trillion mark, a level that has limited growth since 2021. A confirmed monthly close above this level could trigger a "massive breakout". Adding to the positive sentiment, the MACD indicator is showing a signal that has previously marked the beginning of altcoin rallies.

However, other indicators present a more cautious picture. The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the performance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin, has dropped to 40, indicating that altcoins are currently oversold. This reading is even lower than during the COVID-19 pandemic and the FTX crash.

Bitcoin's dominance has started to show early signs of weakness, and analysts believe a sustained drop below 55% could open the door for altcoins to outperform. However, Gracy Chen, from Bitget, has signaled a shift in the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing the demise of altcoin season as venture capital (VC) interest wanes. Chen warns that recent events have dealt a blow to altcoins, with investments increasingly directed towards stronger narratives and innovations within the crypto space.

Factors Influencing Altcoin Performance

Several factors could influence altcoin performance in the coming months:

• Bitcoin's Price Movement: Some analysts believe that Bitcoin's next explosive move could trigger a full-scale altcoin season. A potential rise toward $200,000 is being targeted, with this new all-time high level identified as Bitcoin's potential cycle top.
• Ethereum's Performance: Ethereum reaching a new all-time high is seen as a key signal for altseason to gain momentum. Historically, altcoin rallies have occurred after Ethereum reaches new highs.
• Macroeconomic Factors: A potential Federal Reserve rate cut by the end of 2025 could be a major catalyst for an altcoin rally.
• Technological Trends: The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) and advancements in AI-driven blockchain solutions could drive innovation and create new opportunities for growth in the altcoin space.

Conclusion

While there are glimmers of hope for an altcoin season, the signals remain mixed. The market is at a critical juncture, and the coming weeks will likely determine whether altcoins can break free from Bitcoin's dominance and embark on a sustained rally. Investors should closely monitor the key indicators and be prepared to adjust their strategies accordingly.