Pakistan's naval capabilities are set to receive a significant boost with the expected commissioning of its first Chinese-designed submarine in 2026. This development is part of a larger agreement with China, involving the delivery of eight Hangor-class submarines by 2028, and has implications for regional maritime security, particularly for India.
Under the terms of the agreement, reportedly worth up to $5 billion, the initial four diesel-electric attack submarines will be constructed in China, while the remaining vessels will be assembled in Pakistan. This arrangement aims to enhance Pakistan's technical capabilities and promote self-reliance in naval technology. Admiral Naveed Ashraf, Chief of Naval Staff of the Pakistan Navy, has expressed confidence in the project, highlighting its contribution to Pakistan's submarine force capabilities and the transfer of technology to Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works.
These submarines are expected to significantly enhance Pakistan's ability to patrol the North Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, key areas for regional power projection. According to Admiral Ashraf, Chinese-origin platforms and equipment have proven reliable, technologically advanced, and well-suited to the Pakistan Navy's operational requirements. He also emphasized the importance of emerging technologies like unmanned systems, AI, and advanced electronic warfare systems, noting that the Pakistan Navy is actively exploring collaboration with China in these fields.
The introduction of the Hangor-class submarines has raised concerns in India, where media outlets have described them as a "direct rival" to India's Kalvari-class submarines. Some reports suggest that Pakistan is using these acquisitions to strengthen its naval capabilities and challenge the Indian Navy's "might". Manish Tewari, a politician from India's opposition Congress party, cautioned that the China-Pakistan naval cooperation poses a "clear and present danger to the balance of power in the North Arabian Sea".
India currently operates a mix of nuclear and diesel-electric submarines sourced from France, Russia, and Germany. While India has been working to develop its indigenous submarine capabilities, projects like the P-75I have faced delays. The Indian Navy's fleet includes 17 conventional submarines, many of which are over 30 years old, and three nuclear-powered submarines. Given the aging submarine fleet and the long lead times for new acquisitions, the addition of Chinese-built submarines to Pakistan's navy could potentially shift the balance of power in the region.
Defense analysts view the Hangor deal as part of China's broader strategy to counter India's maritime influence and extend its reach towards the Middle East through military and economic corridors. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a major component of China's Belt and Road Initiative, aims to secure a route for China to access energy supplies from the Middle East, bypassing strategic chokepoints like the Straits of Malacca.
The evolving naval dynamics in the Indian Ocean highlight the growing strategic partnership between China and Pakistan. As Pakistan prepares to induct its first Chinese-designed submarine in 2026, India will need to carefully assess the implications for its maritime security and adjust its naval strategy accordingly.
