Bitcoin has experienced a volatile trading period, marked by oscillations around the $100,000 mark, leading some analysts to suggest that the cryptocurrency may be entering a "bottoming phase". This comes amidst a backdrop of both positive and negative forces influencing the market, creating uncertainty among investors.
Recently, Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $100,000 support level, signaling a potentially bearish move. Technical analysis suggests that if buyers fail to defend this critical level, a further decline towards the $95,000 range could occur. On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains range-bound between $100,000-$102,000 and $114,000, with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages acting as overhead resistance. A rejection from the 100-day MA around $110,000 led to a retest of the $101,000 support, completing a liquidity sweep of the previous range low.
However, there are also signs of potential stabilization. The price is currently stabilizing within a historically high-volume node, a pattern seen in previous macro corrections. An extended series of equal lows suggests that liquidity below $100,000 has likely been harvested, which, if followed by consolidation and a higher low formation, could indicate strong buying pressure. A reclaim of the $106,000-$108,000 level would be the first confirmation of regained strength for bulls, while a daily close below $99,000 would open the door to the $93,000-$95,000 macro accumulation zone for bears.
Zooming in on the 4-hour chart reveals a compressed descending range, where each lower high forms closer to support, a classic sign of momentum exhaustion. Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the $101,000-$102,000 zone, creating imbalance pockets above $106,000 and $110,000, which could act as magnet levels for corrective rallies. This coiling behavior often occurs near the end of a corrective phase, as leveraged positions are flushed out and volatility contracts. A sustained rejection from $104,000 would prolong the accumulation scenario.
Adding to the complexity, analysis of UTXO Age Bands reveals that Bitcoin's price has fallen below the realized price of 1-3 month and 3-6 month holders, meaning these cohorts are collectively underwater. This transforms their realized price levels (roughly $107,000-$110,000) into overhead supply zones, where short-term holders may exit at breakeven during recovery phases, creating initial resistance.
Despite the recent volatility, several factors point to continued institutional interest and potential upside. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net inflows, led by BlackRock's iShares. Furthermore, Robinhood is considering adding Bitcoin to its treasury due to rising earnings, which could boost Bitcoin's credibility. JPMorgan analysts suggest Bitcoin could reach $170,000 within the next 6-12 months, based on its volatility-adjusted comparison to gold. They estimate that Bitcoin's market capitalization would need to increase by nearly 67% to match the total private-sector investment in gold.
However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and investors should exercise caution. Technical analysis indicates a slightly negative outlook for Bitcoin in the long term, with a breakdown through support levels predicting further decline. A negative volume balance further weakens the currency in the short term.
Overall, Bitcoin's current price action suggests a market in search of direction. While technical indicators point to potential downside risks, strong institutional interest and positive developments, such as ETF inflows, provide support. Whether Bitcoin is truly in a "bottoming phase" remains to be seen, but its ability to navigate the current crisscross pattern will likely determine its trajectory in the coming weeks.
