Bitcoin's price is facing renewed pressure as veteran investors, known as "OG whales," continue to liquidate their holdings, sparking concerns of a potential drop to $90,000. This trend, ongoing since November 2024, has contributed to Bitcoin's underperformance compared to other assets throughout 2025.
Whale Activity and Market Impact
Recent activity from major Bitcoin whales, including BitcoinOG and Owen Gunden, has intensified discussions within the crypto community. These whales have moved substantial amounts of BTC to exchanges, raising concerns about increased market volatility. BitcoinOG, known for shorting Bitcoin during downturns, has deposited 13,000 BTC (worth $1.48 billion) to exchanges since October 1st. Owen Gunden, a long-term Bitcoin holder since the Satoshi era, reactivated old wallets to transfer 3,265 BTC (worth $364.5 million) to exchanges between October 21st and November 3rd, marking one of his largest exchange inflows in years.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, highlighted the trend of OG Bitcoin whales cashing out, showing on-chain spending from holders of assets for over seven years. The chart analysis revealed continuous offloading of assets since November 2024, with net sales from long-term holders surpassing 1 million Bitcoin since late June.
Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis
Bitcoin's price has been consolidating around $108,000, with analysts monitoring key resistance levels between $110,000 and $115,000. Support levels are observed around $104,000 to $106,000, and a drop below the $100,000 mark could trigger further corrections. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to "extreme fear" levels, reflecting heightened caution among traders.
Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD signal continued selling pressure. A break below the $100,000 support level could lead to a test of the $90,000 level, potentially delaying recovery. However, some analysts suggest that holding above $100,000 could pave the way for a recovery.
Contrasting Trends: Retail vs. Whales
While large holders are distributing their Bitcoin, smaller retail cohorts (wallets below 1,000 BTC) have remained in accumulation mode. Wallets containing more than 1,000 BTC show net selling pressure estimated at 5 million BTC in recent weeks. This divergence highlights the contrasting behavior between retail investors and institutional players.
Potential Price Targets and Expert Opinions
JPMorgan analysts project that Bitcoin could climb to $170,000 in the next six to twelve months, contingent on the $100,000 support level holding. However, Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, suggests that failure to reclaim support levels of $117,000 and $112,000 indicates a potential bear cycle, with a possible decline to the $70,000 range.
Changelly's Bitcoin price forecast indicates a potential increase to $120,504.10 by November 10, 2025. CoinCodex's analysis suggests Bitcoin could trade between $104,296 and $143,700 in 2025, with an average price of $121,323.
Factors Influencing the Market
Several factors are influencing Bitcoin's price, including whale activity, institutional demand, and macroeconomic conditions. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows, signaling weakening institutional interest, while stablecoin inflows to exchanges have risen. The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and the strength of the US dollar also play a role.
Conclusion
The continued selling pressure from OG Bitcoin whales presents a challenge for the market, with potential for a price drop to $90,000. However, positive developments such as renewed ETF inflows and improving whale accumulation could help sustain Bitcoin's stability. The market's next move will depend on a combination of factors, and traders should monitor key support and resistance levels to assess potential trend reversals.
