Bitcoin is eyeing a potential surge to $200,000 as selling pressure diminishes, according to a recent analysis. This bullish outlook is attributed to the cryptocurrency entering what analysts are calling "Wave 3" of its expansion.
Understanding the "Wave 3"
The "Wave 3" designation stems from Elliott Wave Theory, a technical analysis approach that identifies repeating long-term price patterns related to persistent changes in investor sentiment and psychology. According to this theory, market prices move in specific patterns called waves. A bullish cycle consists of five waves, with Wave 3 typically being the largest and most powerful.
Fading Sell-Side Pressure
Several factors contribute to the expectation of reduced selling pressure. The Bitcoin market has been underpinned by strong ETF inflows. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last year has significantly broadened mainstream access to Bitcoin, attracting large institutional investors who were initially hesitant due to concerns about illicit activity and the environmental impact. These investors now actively offer clients exposure to Bitcoin.
Technical Indicators Pointing Upward
Technical analysis of Bitcoin CME Futures (BTC1!) shows that after nearly six months of consolidation between $100,000–$115,000, the current setup indicates an ascending triangle formation nearing completion — signaling a potential major breakout toward the end of Q4 2025. Bitcoin has closed above its 20-week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) for 11 consecutive weeks, confirming structural bullish momentum.
Liquidity Boost
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has highlighted the importance of liquidity for crypto rallies. Once the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) hits its target, liquidity will flow back into private markets, setting the stage for crypto to enter an "up only" mode. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with the first cut since 2024 already implemented, further support this. Markets anticipate additional rate cuts, which historically favor Bitcoin during easing cycles and liquidity expansions.
Potential Targets
Technical upside targets after a confirmed breakout are projected at $127,300, $141,800 and $156,700. Some analysts suggest that Bitcoin could move towards $130,000–$150,000 as liquidity returns. If institutional money accelerates alongside Federal Reserve easing, Bitcoin reaching $150,000 remains a realistic scenario.
Remaining Cautious
Despite the bullish outlook, some analysts downplay the tight correlation between net liquidity and Bitcoin. The Bitcoin market has been forming a complex trading range and a test of the $115K level will be key in revealing the quality of this latest buying.
Conclusion
The analysis suggesting Bitcoin's "Wave 3" expansion towards $200,000 hinges on several factors, including decreased sell-side pressure, strong ETF inflows, favorable technical indicators, and increased liquidity. While the long-term trend remains bullish, monitoring key price levels and market dynamics is crucial for investors.
