Bihar's recent assembly elections saw the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secure a decisive victory, exceeding the predictions of most exit polls. While many polls correctly indicated an NDA win, they largely underestimated the scale of the victory, failing to foresee the "landslide" that ultimately materialized.
Most exit polls projected a comfortable win for the NDA, comprising the BJP, JD(U), and LJP (Ram Vilas), with seat predictions generally exceeding the 122-seat majority mark in the 243-member assembly. For instance, Polstrat's forecast placed the ruling coalition at 133-148, and the JVC survey predicted 135–150 seats for the NDA. Similarly, Today's Chanakya predicted 155 seats for the NDA. However, the actual results revealed an even stronger performance by the NDA, highlighting the inherent challenges in accurately gauging the electoral pulse, even in exit polls.
The opposition Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD's Tejashwi Yadav, including the Congress and Left parties, was predicted to fall short of a majority by most exit polls. While some polls suggested a close contest, nearly all underestimated the final seat tally for the alliance. For example, Axis My India predicted the Mahagathbandhan would likely win 98-118 seats. The actual results saw the Mahagathbandhan secure fewer seats than anticipated, demonstrating the difficulty in capturing the nuances of voter preferences and the impact of last-minute shifts in alliances or voter sentiment.
One notable exception to the prevailing trend was a survey by Journo Mirror, which predicted a win for the Mahagathbandhan, projecting 130-140 seats for the INDIA bloc. This prediction stood in stark contrast to most other exit polls, highlighting the wide range of projections and the inherent uncertainty in predicting election outcomes.
Several factors may have contributed to the discrepancy between exit poll predictions and the actual results. Bihar's electoral history suggests that exit polls have often struggled to capture the pulse of the state. In the 2020 elections, nearly every major agency predicted a clear edge for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, which ultimately did not materialize. This historical precedent underscores the challenges in accurately predicting election outcomes in Bihar, where various social, economic, and political factors can influence voter behavior.
The 2025 Bihar election also marked the presence of new political entrants, such as Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party (JSP). Exit polls largely failed to predict a significant impact for JSP, with most projecting the party to win only a handful of seats. This proved accurate as the final results indicated a limited impact for JSP.
In conclusion, while exit polls in the 2025 Bihar elections generally pointed in the right direction by predicting an NDA victory, they significantly underestimated the magnitude of the win. The results highlight the complexities of election forecasting and the importance of considering a range of factors when interpreting exit poll data. As always, the actual results serve as a reminder that voter sentiment can be fluid and that unforeseen factors can significantly impact election outcomes.
