Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reportedly planning a visit to London next week, potentially marking a significant step in the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Sources indicate that the long-awaited trade deal is likely to be signed during this visit. This would be Modi's first visit to the UK since 2018.
Negotiations for the FTA have been ongoing for three years, with a provisional agreement reached in May. The finalization of the "legal scrubbing" of the text is currently underway. The India's Commerce Ministry has set the end of July as the deadline for officials to get the trade deal signed.
The agreement aims to boost trade and investment between the two countries by removing trade barriers and enabling duty-free entry of goods. The FTA is expected to eliminate tariffs on key Indian exports, such as leather, textiles, footwear, marine products, and gems and jewellery. The UK will also reduce duties on British goods like whisky, cars, and food. Specifically, import tariffs on Scotch whisky are expected to drop from 150% to 75% immediately, with a further reduction to 40% planned over the next decade. Tariffs on gin will also be halved from 150% to 75%, falling to 40% by the 10th year of the deal. Moreover, tariffs on UK premium cars are expected to decrease from over 100% to 10%.
The FTA is projected to significantly increase bilateral trade. The UK government estimates that the trade agreement could add £4.8 billion to the UK economy. Both governments aim to double trade between the two economies to $120 billion by 2030. The new agreement is expected to increase bilateral trade between the countries by $34 billion a year from 2040. By 2030, India's middle class is projected to reach 60 million people and could rise to a quarter of a billion by 2050, according to British government estimates.
Once signed, the FTA will require approval from the British Parliament and India’s Cabinet before it can take effect. The complete implementation is expected to take approximately one year after signing.
In addition to the UK, an Indian trade delegation is holding separate talks in Washington for a potential trade deal with the U.S..