Stellar Lumens (XLM) is showing signs of a potential surge, mirroring the price action of XRP, amid positive developments in the crypto market and endorsements from key figures. Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests XLM has long-term upside, provided it holds above $0.20 and closes decisively above $1, potentially rallying to $7.20.
XLM's Bullish Signals and XRP Correlation
XLM has experienced a substantial rally, with over 90% gains in the past month, mirroring XRP's 60% rally. This has led to speculation that XLM could follow a similar path. Historically, XLM and XRP have shown a strong directional correlation, driven by their shared founder and similar use cases in cross-border payments. During bull phases, their correlation coefficient typically exceeds 0.70, indicating synchronized price action. In July 2023, a favorable court ruling in Ripple's case triggered a 60% rally in XRP, followed by a similar surge in XLM, pushing the correlation coefficient to 0.95. This pattern appears to be playing out again in 2025, suggesting that XLM may extend its rally as long as XRP remains elevated.
Technical Analysis and Price Predictions
XLM is consolidating within an ascending triangle, a bullish continuation setup, with rising lows and horizontal resistance near $0.52. A breakout above this level could lead to a 35% surge toward $0.63. According to CoinCodex, the price of Stellar is predicted to rise by 18.32% and reach $ 0.567763 by August 16, 2025. The forecasted price range for July 2025 is between $0.479856 and $0.568368, with an average monthly price of $0.514817. Bitget projects the price of Stellar to be $0.4646 in July 2025. CoinDCX's XLM price prediction for July 2025 points to $0.45–$0.50, driven by stronger DeFi use cases and cross-border remittance growth.
Stellar's Fundamental Strengths
Stellar has been making progress on several fronts, boosting confidence among users and institutions. The Protocol 23 Upgrade, set for a mainnet vote on August 14, 2025, aims to make smart contracts faster and more cost-efficient, which is crucial for scaling Stellar's DeFi capabilities. Stellar has also integrated PayPal's stablecoin PYUSD into its network, enabling global, low-cost transfers and expanding the utility of PYUSD. Furthermore, THORWallet has added full support for XLM. Franklin Templeton tokenized $446 million worth of U.S. Treasuries on Stellar's blockchain, indicating the platform's growing role in real-world asset infrastructure.
Trump's Crypto Policies and the GENIUS Act
President Donald Trump has signed the GENIUS Act into law, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins and marking a significant step for the crypto industry. The GENIUS Act prioritizes consumer protection, strengthens the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status, and aims to make America the leader in digital assets. It requires 100% reserve backing for stablecoins with liquid assets and mandates monthly disclosures of reserve composition. Trump's administration has also taken steps to boost the crypto industry, including the SEC dropping enforcement actions against large crypto companies. Trump has pledged to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the world".
Potential Challenges and Considerations
Despite the bullish outlook, analysts caution that overbought signals and high open interest could lead to short-term volatility. The broader crypto market's performance will also play a significant role in XLM's price trajectory. If Bitcoin or other large-cap coins experience a downturn, XLM may struggle to maintain upward momentum. Some analysts also express concerns about centralization, as the Stellar Development Foundation holds a significant portion of all XLM.
