Indian Oil, BPCL, HPCL May Boost Russia Oil Imports as India-US Trade Talks Drag On

As trade negotiations between India and the United States encounter hurdles, India's leading oil refiners, including Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL), are likely to increase their imports of Russian crude oil. This decision comes as discounts on Russian Urals crude have widened to $2-2.50 per barrel below Brent, making it an attractive option for Indian buyers.

Despite pressure from the U.S. to reduce reliance on Russian supplies, India has maintained that its crude oil purchases are driven by price considerations. The U.S. has been pushing New Delhi to curtail its intake of Russian oil, viewing it as indirect support for Moscow amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine. The U.S. even sought to include India's Russian oil purchases in trade talks.

In August 2025, the U.S. imposed a punitive 50% tariff on imports of Indian goods in an attempt to pressure India to reduce its Russian oil imports. Despite this, India has signaled its intent to purchase more U.S. energy.

Despite the potential for higher tariffs from the U.S., India's oil marketing companies (OMCs) and private refiners are expected to boost oil imports from Russia in the coming months, as trade talks with the U.S. drag on and discounts widen amid sufficient volume supplies. For October 2025, ship-tracking data indicates an increase in arrivals, with crude imports from Russia potentially averaging 1.7 million barrels per day, about 6% higher month-on-month, though slightly lower than the previous year.

While state refiners, which serve the majority of the domestic market, are cautious amid U.S. pressure and the need to diversify supply, private companies like Reliance Industries and Nayara benefit from long-term deals with Rosneft, offering deeper discounts and minimum monthly purchase commitments. In September 2025, Indian Oil PSUs imported an average of 605,000 barrels per day, which is below their average from April to August. Meanwhile, private refiners have increased their purchases.

Indian refiners typically refrain from commenting on their crude sourcing strategies. However, IOC has indicated that it would continue buying Russian oil depending on economic factors, suggesting that appealing discounts will sustain the flow of purchases.