India's journey in the ICC Women's World Cup 2025 has become precarious after a narrow 4-run defeat against England on October 19, 2025. The loss, held in Indore, was India's third consecutive defeat in the tournament, leaving their semi-final hopes hanging by a thread. With England, Australia, and South Africa already securing their spots in the semi-finals, only one position remains.

Currently positioned fourth with four points from five matches, India's fate rests on their performance in the remaining two group matches. Their net run rate (NRR) stands at +0.526, slightly above New Zealand, who also have four points but a lower NRR of -0.245. India's upcoming crucial matches are against New Zealand on October 23 and Bangladesh on October 26.

Here are the scenarios that could see India through to the semi-finals:

• Scenario 1: Win Both Matches A victory in both remaining matches against New Zealand and Bangladesh would guarantee India a semi-final berth, regardless of other results. This would bring them to a total of eight points, making it impossible for other teams to surpass them.

• Scenario 2: Lose to New Zealand, Win Against Bangladesh If India loses to New Zealand, they must win against Bangladesh. In this case, they would also need New Zealand to lose their final match against England. Qualification would then depend on a superior net run rate compared to New Zealand.

• Scenario 3: Win Against New Zealand, Lose to Bangladesh Even if India beat New Zealand but lose to Bangladesh, they could still advance, but only if New Zealand defeat England in their final match. In this scenario, the team with the better net run rate between India and New Zealand will progress to the semi-finals.

The defeat against England was a painful one for India. Chasing a target of 289, they were well on track at 167-2 in the 31st over. However, the dismissal of Harmanpreet Kaur for 70 shifted the momentum. Smriti Mandhana's 88 and Deepti Sharma's 50 also weren't enough to see India through, as wickets fell at crucial moments. Ultimately, India fell short by just four runs, finishing at 284-6.

The upcoming match against New Zealand is essentially a quarter-final. A loss would heavily jeopardize India's chances, making the equation even more complicated. New Zealand, with arguably tougher fixtures, also need to win their remaining games to ensure qualification.

India's Women's World Cup campaign is at a critical juncture. While their semi-final hopes are still alive, they need to perform at their best in the remaining matches and potentially rely on favorable results from other games.