Odds of December Fed Rate Cut Plunge to 33% as BTC Falls Below $89K
As of November 19, 2025, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its December meeting has significantly decreased, coinciding with a drop in Bitcoin's price below $89,000. The odds of a rate cut have fallen to approximately 33%, a sharp contrast to the 67% probability that investors had priced in during the first week of November.
This shift in expectations follows the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmation that it would not release the October jobs report. The cancellation of this major economic data point, due to the 2025 government funding lapse, has complicated the Fed's decision-making process. The BLS stated that October payroll and unemployment data cannot be retroactively collected because the household survey was not conducted. The November Employment Situation report has also been rescheduled and will be released on December 16, six days after the December FOMC meeting. The Fed will now enter the December 10 meeting without fresh labor data, increasing uncertainty.
Interest-rate expectations shifted sharply as traders reassessed the landscape. Markets now assign a 63.8% chance that rates will remain at 3.75–4.00 percent.
Former hedge-fund manager James Lavish suggested that the missing jobs data removes any realistic path to a December cut, arguing that the Fed cannot justify loosening policy without updated employment readings.
The decline in rate cut expectations also comes amid "strongly differing" views among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding a December rate cut. Some members favor a pause, expressing concerns about stalling progress on inflation. Others believe that rate cuts are necessary to cushion softening in the labor market. Minutes from the Fed's October meeting revealed these divisions, with many participants suggesting that it would be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year.
Despite the potential pause in December, the minutes indicated that further rate adjustments might still be considered as the Committee moves to a more neutral policy stance over time. At its October meeting, the FOMC cut its benchmark rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%.
Concurrently, Bitcoin's price has experienced a downturn, falling below $89,000. Bitcoin is down 4.53% in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency market is experiencing "extreme fear", contributing to the price decrease. The live Bitcoin price today is $88,850.53 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $74,972,963,562 USD. Bitcoin's price is influenced by factors such as supply, demand, market sentiment, and competition from other cryptocurrencies.
The all time high for BTC was $126,080.00, which occured on October 6, 2025.
