Indian stock markets are expected to open with cautious optimism on Thursday, November 20, 2025, following a strong rebound in benchmark indices the previous day. Both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex are likely to extend gains, with positive cues from GIFT Nifty suggesting a potentially upbeat start.
Market Performance Yesterday
On Wednesday, the Sensex surged by 513.45 points, or 0.61%, to close at 85,186.47, while the Nifty 50 advanced 142.60 points, or 0.55%, to end at 26,052.65. This recovery saw the Nifty 50 reclaim the crucial 26,000 mark. The rally was largely fueled by IT and financial shares, along with sustained buying from domestic institutional investors (DIIs).
Global Cues and India-US Trade Deal
Renewed optimism surrounding a potential India-US trade agreement has buoyed market sentiment. Expectations for the US-India trade pact strengthened after positive comments from the Union Commerce Minister, who indicated "good news" once the deal is fair, equitable, and balanced.
Global cues are mixed. European markets closed higher, potentially supporting cyclical and financial stocks in India. However, Asian markets traded lower amid concerns about escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions. US markets ended mixed, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq closing lower.
Nvidia Earnings and its Impact
Global investors are closely watching Nvidia's Q3 FY2026 earnings, released after US markets closed on November 19, 2025. While analysts forecast explosive growth, concerns about an AI bubble persist. Nvidia's results could significantly impact worldwide indices, including India's Nifty 50 and Sensex.
The Indian market has less direct exposure to the AI hardware frenzy compared to its US counterparts, as the Nifty 50 and Sensex lack pure-play semiconductor or AI chip giants. India's tech focus is more on IT services exporters like TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech, and Wipro. Some analysts suggest a "reverse AI trade" dynamic, where a disappointing Nvidia report could lead to foreign investors rotating out of expensive US tech and into relatively cheaper emerging markets like India. Conversely, if Nvidia exceeds expectations, it could modestly pressure Indian equities as FIIs stay invested in US growth stories.
Key Factors to Watch
- India-US Trade Agreement: Progress on this front could trigger a sharper up-move in the market.
- US Labour Market Data & FOMC Cues: US labour market data and cues from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings will be closely monitored for signals on potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- FII/DII Activity: Continued FII selling could limit sharp upside, while strong DII inflows are likely to cushion declines. On November 19, 2025, FIIs were net buyers with ₹1,580.70, while DIIs also bought with ₹1,360.30.
- Volatility: The India VIX easing suggests calmer trading ahead.
- Technical Levels: Strong support for Nifty 50 is positioned at 25,700, while a decisive breakout above the critical resistance zone of 26,104 could set the stage for a move towards its all-time high of 26,277. Near-term support levels for the Sensex are at 84,589 / 84,214, and resistance levels are at 85,800 / 86,175.
Sectoral Outlook
- IT: The Nifty IT index surged 2.97% yesterday, driven by expectations of improved global demand, a large share buyback announcement from Infosys starting November 20, and hopes of a Fed rate cut.
- PSU Banks: PSU banks also extended gains, supported by merger-related developments and improved fundamentals.
- Auto: The Nifty Auto index saw mild gains but mixed stock movement, suggesting selective profit booking.
Overall Market Sentiment
The market sentiment is positive, driven by renewed optimism and strong buying in IT and banking shares. However, experts believe that in the absence of major positive triggers, the index would continue to consolidate further with volatility.
