Nifty Prediction For January 12: Trade Tensions, Geopolitical Risks Weigh; Key Support Seen At 25,600

Mumbai, January 10, 2026 – Indian stock market indices, particularly the Nifty 50, are facing headwinds as trade tensions and geopolitical risks intensify, casting a shadow over investor sentiment. Experts suggest a cautious outlook for Monday, January 12, with a crucial support level for the Nifty 50 observed at 25,600.

Market Performance and Expert Views

The Nifty 50 closed at 25,683.30 on Friday, January 9, a decline of 193.55 points or 0.75%. The index has been on a losing streak for the past five sessions, cumulatively dropping 663 points, or 2.5%, marking its worst weekly decline in over three months. This downturn reflects growing concerns about potential US tariff hikes, trade deals, and lingering geopolitical worries.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, noted that the Nifty has formed a "long bear candle" on both daily and weekly charts, signaling a sharp downtrend and indicating further weakness in the coming week. Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking, pointed out stiff resistance near the 50-DMA around 25,960 levels.

Support and Resistance Levels

Immediate support for the Nifty 50 is expected in the range of 25,500 to 25,600, while resistance is placed at 25,800. A decisive break below the 100-day EMA, currently at 25,619, could trigger further selling pressure toward the next major support at 25,318, the November 2025 swing low. Any recovery attempts are likely to face strong resistance in the 25,950–26,000 zone. Near-term support levels are identified at 25,507/25,397, with resistance at 25,861/25,970.

Factors Influencing Market Sentiment

Several factors are contributing to the current market unease:

• US Tariff Threats: Warnings from former US President Donald Trump about potential tariff hikes on Indian exports, particularly if India continues to purchase Russian oil, have dampened market sentiment. A bipartisan US bill proposing tariffs of up to 500% on countries buying Russian oil has further fueled these concerns.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating geopolitical tensions, including US military actions in Venezuela, are adding to investor anxiety.
• Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Selling: Persistent selling by FIIs has intensified the weakness in benchmark indices. On January 9, 2026, FIIs net sold shares worth ₹3,769.30 crore.
• Technical Indicators: Technical indicators, including the Nifty trading below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, signal a shift to a positional downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 40, indicating strong bearish momentum.

Sectoral Performance

On January 9, selling was broad-based, with realty, financials, and auto stocks emerging as key laggards. The Nifty Oil & Gas and Nifty IT closed in the green. The Nifty Bank index also experienced a decline, losing 434.95 points, or 0.73%, to close at 59,251.55.

Range-bound Opening Likely

With the India VIX at 10.93, indicating subdued volatility, a cautious, range-bound start is expected for the domestic markets on January 12. Mixed global cues and a slight uptick in the VIX suggest that traders may remain defensive, closely monitoring global developments and institutional flows.

Disclaimer: This article provides a summary of market trends and expert opinions. Investors are advised to conduct thorough research and consult with financial advisors before making any investment decisions.