India's record-breaking rice harvest is poised to exert downward pressure on global rice prices, impacting farmers and consumers alike. The surge in supply coincides with weakening demand and stricter import regulations from key buyers, creating a challenging environment for exporters.
India, the world's largest rice exporter, accounts for approximately 40% of global shipments. The country's rice exports experienced a substantial boost of 19.4% last year following the removal of export restrictions, reaching the second-highest level on record. Spurred by record production, India removed remaining export curbs from 2022 and 2023, raising exports to 21.55 million metric tons. Non-basmati rice exports increased by 25% and basmati by 8%, with significant shipments to countries including Bangladesh, Iran, and the UAE. This increased export flow has intensified competition among major producers, including Thailand and Vietnam, driving Asian rice prices to their lowest levels in nearly a decade.
Global rice output is expected to reach a record 556.4 million metric tons in 2025/26, a 1.2% increase from the previous year, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. Global rice supplies in 2025/26 are forecast at 730.7 million tonnes, a record high, up 1.7 million tonnes from the previous forecast. This would be the third consecutive year that supplies increase. The upward revision is mainly due to higher beginning stocks, particularly in India, more than offsetting reductions in South Korea and Vietnam.
The abundant supply from the new season crop is adding to already large inventories from the previous season, pushing Indian prices below those of Thailand and Vietnam. As a result, Indian rice prices could fall by $15 to $25 per ton by March. Currently, India is offering 5% broken parboiled rice at around $355–$360 per ton, while 5% broken white rice is priced at $350–$355 per ton.
Several factors contribute to the weakening demand. Key rice importers, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, have recently imposed restrictions on rice imports. Moreover, buyers are delaying purchases, anticipating further price declines as major exporters compete to ship surplus supplies. This situation is putting pressure on farmers, who may face significant rate cuts to remain competitive.
Lower rice prices will benefit consumers in price-sensitive regions like Africa. However, the situation is likely to squeeze the already meager earnings of farmers across Asia, where nearly 90% of the world's rice is produced.
Despite the overall pressure on prices, Thai rice prices have seen a rise due to deals with China and Singapore. For global rice imports in 2026, forecasts have increased for China and Tanzania due to relatively low global rice prices, and for Madagascar due to reduced output. Conversely, import forecasts have been lowered for Benin and Togo, as a larger-than-expected supply of Indian parboiled rice is expected to be transhipped onward to Nigeria. Global rice trade in calendar year 2026 is projected at a record 62.8 million tonnes, 0.3 million tonnes higher than the previous forecast.
