Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated sharply in recent weeks, raising concerns about a potential full-blown conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. The immediate trigger for the current crisis was a deadly militant attack on tourists in Pahalgam, in Indian-administered Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, which resulted in the deaths of 26 people, mostly Indian tourists. India has accused Pakistan of backing the attack, a charge Islamabad strongly denies.

In response to the Pahalgam attack, India launched a series of missile strikes on May 7, 2025, targeting what it described as terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan condemned the strikes as an "act of war," claiming that they resulted in the deaths of at least 26 people and injuries to dozens more. Pakistan has retaliated with artillery shelling along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border in Kashmir, and claims to have shot down several Indian aircraft. India, in turn, has accused Pakistan of initiating unprovoked firing across the LoC.

The recent events mark the most serious escalation between India and Pakistan since 2019, when tensions flared following a suicide attack on Indian security forces in Pulwama. The two countries have a long history of conflict, having fought three wars since their independence in 1947, two of them over Kashmir. The region remains a major point of contention, with both countries claiming it in its entirety.

Several factors contribute to the risk of further escalation. First, there is a high level of mistrust and animosity between the two countries, fueled by historical grievances and differing narratives. India accuses Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, while Pakistan accuses India of human rights abuses in Kashmir. Second, both countries possess nuclear weapons, raising the stakes of any potential conflict. The possibility of miscalculation or accidental escalation is a major concern. Third, domestic political considerations may be pushing both governments to adopt a more hardline stance. In India, there have been calls for stronger military action against Pakistan, while in Pakistan, the government is under pressure to respond to what is seen as Indian aggression.

The international community has expressed deep concern over the escalating tensions and has called for restraint. The United Nations Secretary-General has urged both countries to de-escalate and resolve their differences through dialogue. Some countries have offered to mediate between the two sides. However, India has historically rejected third-party mediation in the Kashmir conflict, viewing it as a bilateral issue.

The situation remains highly volatile, and the risk of further escalation cannot be ruled out. A key factor will be Pakistan's response to the Indian strikes and whether it chooses to retaliate in a way that could provoke further Indian action. The possibility of a wider military conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors would have devastating consequences for the region and beyond.