Recent tensions between India and Pakistan have raised concerns about the durability of the current ceasefire, particularly in light of statements made by Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar linking the ceasefire's stability to the resolution of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) dispute.
Following a deadly attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir on April 22, 2025, India blamed Pakistan for supporting the militants involved and announced the suspension of the IWT. This move escalated tensions, leading to cross-border strikes and retaliatory actions. Pakistan has denied any involvement in the Pahalgam attack.
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, is a crucial agreement that governs the sharing of water resources from the Indus River basin between India and Pakistan. The treaty allocates the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan and the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) to India. It has been considered a successful example of water diplomacy, surviving multiple conflicts between the two nations.
However, disputes over water usage and infrastructure projects have persisted. Pakistan has repeatedly raised concerns about India's construction of dams and hydroelectric projects on the western rivers, arguing that they violate the treaty and threaten its water security. India, on the other hand, maintains that its projects comply with the treaty's provisions.
Ishaq Dar has warned that India's suspension of the IWT could jeopardize the already fragile ceasefire between the two countries. In an interview, Dar stated that resolving the water dispute through dialogue is essential for maintaining peace. He characterized India's suspension of the treaty as a "unilateral and illegal" move that contravenes international law and the treaty's provisions. Dar has also suggested that if India doesn't reverse the suspension of the treaty, it "will amount to an act of war".
Despite the ceasefire agreement reached with US assistance, both India and Pakistan have accused each other of violations. India has sent warnings to Pakistan regarding ceasefire breaches, while Pakistan has denied any violations by its forces. The situation remains tense, with the potential for further escalation if the underlying issues are not addressed.
Dar has emphasized Pakistan's desire for long-term peace and security with India, but also stressed the need for a resolution to the Kashmir issue, which he sees as the "root cause of regional instability". He has also reiterated Pakistan's condemnation of terrorism and denied any involvement in the Pahalgam attack.
The suspension of the IWT and the warnings from Pakistan's leadership highlight the interconnectedness of water security and regional stability in South Asia. Whether the ceasefire will hold depends, in part, on the willingness of both countries to engage in meaningful dialogue and address the outstanding issues related to the Indus Waters Treaty. Failure to do so could have serious consequences for the region.
