The Indian stock market is expected to open higher on August 25, 2025, mirroring positive global cues following Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, which hinted at a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September.
Global Market Influences
Asian markets are trading higher, drawing encouragement from Wall Street's performance after Powell's remarks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all closed sharply higher, with the Dow reaching a record closing high. Market participants have increased their bets on a September rate cut, now assigning a nearly 90% probability, up from about 75% before Powell's speech. Powell's dovish signal at the Jackson Hole Symposium has boosted sentiment, suggesting that a rate cut could be imminent in 2025. By acknowledging the rising risks of a weakening U.S. job market, Powell has opened the door for a shift in the Fed's monetary policy to support growth and employment. This dovish stance has put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar and bond yields, indirectly supporting emerging markets like India.
Indian Market Performance and Expectations
The Gift Nifty is trading around the 24,953 level, indicating a positive start for the Indian benchmark index. Despite a sharp decline on the previous trading day that snapped a six-day winning streak, analysts maintain a short-term positive outlook on the Nifty 50. On Friday, the Sensex dropped 693.86 points, or 0.85%, to close at 81,306.85, while the Nifty 50 settled 213.65 points, or 0.85%, lower at 24,870.10.
Key Levels and Technical Outlook
The Nifty 50 closed at 24,870.10, below its Classic Pivot Point of 24,938.03, signaling a potentially bearish development for the next trading session. Technical indicators suggest that the index is likely to test the S1 support level at 24,791.22. If this support is breached, the next key level to watch would be the S2 support at 24,712.333. On the upside, immediate resistance for the Sensex is in the 82,000 – 82,200 zone, and a sustained move above this range could drive the index toward 82,500. Strong weekly support for the Sensex has shifted to 80,700 – 80,500. A break below this zone may embolden sellers, dragging the index down to 80,200 – 80,000.
Bank Nifty Outlook
The Bank Nifty closed at 55,149, down 1.09%, slipping below the 20-DMA and testing the key pivot zone of 55,332, indicating weakness in the short-term structure. Immediate resistance for Bank Nifty lies at 55,562–55,975, with support at 54,919–54,689. A breach below 54,900 may accelerate downside towards 54,300, while sustaining above 55,600 could trigger short covering.
Trading Strategy
Given the mixed signals, analysts recommend a cautious approach. Investors and traders should manage event risks carefully, trimming leveraged positions ahead of key domestic and global data releases and redeploying selectively as volatility eases. Maintaining a measured long bias is prudent, with staggered buying on dips in quality names where earnings visibility remains strong.
Key Factors to Watch
