Bitcoin is facing the possibility of retesting the $110,000 mark, influenced by a strengthening US dollar and other macroeconomic factors. On Thursday, data indicated that US jobless claims were lower than expected, signaling that the labor market might not be as weak as anticipated. This led to a decrease in market confidence regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Consequently, the US dollar index (DXY) surged to a three-week high, causing declines in crypto, stocks, and gold.
The overall mood in the market has also been affected by uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly reports of Russian jet interceptions near Alaska. The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, noted that the pullback in stocks was "overdue," stating that healthy bull markets do not move in a straight line.
On the technical analysis front, Swissblock, a crypto market insight company, has cautioned that the market is currently in a "make-or-break" situation regarding Bitcoin's price action.
Earlier in the week, Bitcoin's price experienced a sharp decline, dropping nearly 3% to around $115,376, its lowest point in two weeks. This decline followed a recent peak of approximately $119,291. The drop was attributed to large Bitcoin holders taking profits. Lookonchain, a blockchain analysis platform, reported that Galaxy Digital, an asset management firm, moved nearly 30,000 BTC from its wallets in a single day, with most of these coins, valued at around $1.15 billion, being sent to centralized exchanges like Binance and over-the-counter (OTC) trading platforms. Despite these large outflows, Galaxy still holds a significant amount of Bitcoin, with 18,504 BTC worth approximately $2.14 billion.
Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN, commented on the price movement, noting that the market is cooling off after an overheated period, with trading momentum weakening and new ETF inflows slowing down. Fournier suggested that this could be a healthy reset, potentially leading Bitcoin down towards the $110,000 support zone.
However, Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, adding over 2% to its value and trading above $110,000. This rally has contributed to an increase in the total crypto market cap, which now stands at $3.77 trillion.
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart for BTC/USD remains bearish, but momentum indicators are showing improvement, suggesting that buyers are starting to re-enter the market. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are nearing a crossover into positive territory, indicating fading bearish momentum, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 56 suggests resuming buying pressure, which could potentially push Bitcoin's price higher in the near term. If the recovery continues, Bitcoin could rally towards the resistance level of $113,200. However, if the correction resumes, Bitcoin could retest the $107,000 low, and failure to defend this level could lead to a further decline towards the $105,328 support.
It's important to note that Bitcoin's price has previously fallen below the $110,000 threshold. On August 27, 2025, Bitcoin briefly slipped below $110,000, accompanied by a drop in its 30-day moving average to the lowest level since May 2018. Analysts at Crypto Quant indicated that this could signify significant selling pressure in the short term.
