Bitcoin has recently broken past its established four-year cycle, potentially entering a "supercycle". Multiple factors indicate that this supercycle may be unfolding, suggesting a prolonged period of significant value increase for the cryptocurrency.
Strong ETF Inflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen substantial net inflows, signaling strong institutional demand and providing durable tailwinds for Bitcoin. Last week alone, these ETFs recorded $2.2 billion in net inflows, the second-largest ever. These inflows mirror those seen between November 6 and December 16, 2024, which coincided with Bitcoin's 60% rally from $67,000 to $108,000. Sustained ETF inflows throughout October and November could further bolster confidence and support prices into the year's end. Bitwise's chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, anticipates record-breaking Bitcoin ETF inflows for the fourth quarter, driven by rising prices and increased wealth manager participation in crypto.
Broad Accumulation: Accumulation is occurring across all Bitcoin investor groups, suggesting the rally is just beginning. This "more organic" accumulation indicates a strengthening market. Renewed institutional participation has absorbed available spot supply, strengthening overall market liquidity. CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin is still in a 'stable range,' far from being 'overbought,' meaning the upward trend may continue.
Technical Indicators: Bitcoin has displayed exceptional bullish momentum, recovering from around $108,000 and rising over 16% to set a new all-time high above $126,000 on Sunday. Veteran trader Peter Brandt's analysis, based on Bitcoin's repeating cycle symmetry, suggests early October 2025 may mirror previous post-halving peaks. He predicted this timeline long ago, and Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $126,100 on October 6, just a day after his projected peak. A rare “cylinder” chart pattern suggests a potential price target of $450,000-$500,000 this cycle. After a nearly 16% rally in less than two weeks, a pullback was expected before continuing its bullish momentum. Bitcoin recently broke out of a descending triangle pattern on October 1 and followed through with strong upward momentum, printing a new all-time high.
