Bitcoin bulls are facing a critical juncture as technical indicators suggest the potential for a fourth "death cross" in the current market cycle, specifically around the $102,000 price level. A death cross, a bearish pattern in technical analysis, occurs when a short-term moving average (typically the 50-day moving average) crosses below a long-term moving average (typically the 200-day moving average). This pattern signals that short-term momentum is weakening relative to the longer-term trend, often interpreted as a sign of further price declines.
Bitcoin's price has experienced significant volatility recently. After reaching a high of $126,172 in September, it has since fallen, trading around $101,907. This downturn has led to the formation of the potential death cross, raising concerns among investors about a possible steep crash. Technical analysts note that Bitcoin has been trading within a tight range of $100,000 to $102,000, facing resistance between $106,000 and $114,000.
However, some analysts remain optimistic, suggesting that Bitcoin could recover if it holds the key support level near $102,000 - $104,000. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicate a likelihood of a relief bounce. A sustained recovery, however, depends on renewed buying momentum, continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and overall macroeconomic stability.
Adding to the uncertainty, long-term Bitcoin holders have been selling, with the Net Position Change of hodlers showing a negative trend. This indicates that despite the recent rebound, larger investors are remaining on the sidelines. However, Samson Mow, founder of JAN3, believes that the Bitcoin bull market "has yet to begin", despite the price fluctuations. He suggests that the current price range only slightly outperforms inflation and links the price decline to macroeconomic factors and tensions in US-China trade relations. Mow also proposes the possibility of a "Christmas divine candle," referring to a sharp price increase by the end of the year.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's price predictions for the remainder of 2025 vary. CoinCodex forecasts Bitcoin to trade between $104,296 and $121,693 this week, potentially reaching $121,693 by November 10, 2025. Changelly's analysis suggests an increase to $120,437.97 by November 11, 2025. Other analysts anticipate a climb towards the $120,000 - $130,000 range by late 2025 if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable. InvestingHaven suggests that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2025, driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs fueling demand and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts creating a more favorable environment for risk assets.
Institutions like JPMorgan remain bullish, forecasting a potential rise to $170,000 within 6-12 months. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, forecasts a sustained crypto bull market driven by global money printing and credit expansion, anticipating this trend to fuel market growth until 2027-2028.
To avoid the potential death cross and continue the bullish trend, Bitcoin needs to overcome immediate resistance at $105,600. A daily close above this level would confirm the rejection of support at $103,000 and open the path toward higher levels. A break above $116,500, approximately 12% above the current price, would invalidate bearish patterns and signal a new bullish phase.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market remains volatile. While technical indicators present a mixed outlook, various analysts and institutions maintain a bullish long-term perspective. The ability of Bitcoin bulls to defend the $102,000 level and overcome resistance will be crucial in determining whether the cryptocurrency can avoid the potential "death cross" and continue its upward trajectory.
