Bitcoin experienced a significant bear market in 2025, but a "decade-long" bull run may be on the horizon, according to macro analyst Dan Tapiero. While Bitcoin is currently trading between $87,700 and $88,000, a roughly 30% drop from its all-time high in October 2025, Tapiero and others suggest this is a mid-cycle lull, not the end of the crypto bull market.

Bear Market Conditions in 2025

Bitcoin's bear market in 2025 became apparent after a 28% decline from its January high of $109,350, falling to $78,000 by February 2025. This downturn was confirmed by technical indicators, including Bitcoin trading below its 200-day moving average. CryptoQuant's analysis indicated that Bitcoin's internal market structure was shifting towards early-stage bear market conditions. Their Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI), which blends price behavior with on-chain momentum, slipped below its equilibrium zone, a development that often coincides with bearish phases.

Factors Contributing to the Bear Market:

• Price Declines: A drop of 20% or more from recent highs typically characterizes a bear market in crypto.
• Technical Indicators: Bitcoin trading below its 200-day moving average and RSI divergence on daily and weekly charts.
• Waning Investor Confidence: Market sentiment has deteriorated, with optimism scarce and traders showing little confidence in a sustainable price floor.
• Market Turbulence: Events such as the Bybit exchange hack amplified fears and contributed to selling pressure.

Tapiero's Bullish Outlook

Despite the current bear market, Dan Tapiero, a veteran of global macro investments, believes Bitcoin is nowhere near the final phase of its current cycle. He argues that the bull market in Bitcoin, blockchain, and digital assets is still in its mid-stage. Tapiero emphasizes the increased maturity, diversification, and revenue generation in the cryptocurrency space compared to 2021 levels. He anticipates that successful private digital asset companies entering traditional financial public markets will unlock new liquidity sources.

Tapiero's Price Forecasts:

• Bitcoin: \$180,000
• Gold: \$5,500 per ounce
• Silver: \$85 per ounce

Rationale for a "Decade-Long" Bull Run

Tapiero has been "all in" on crypto since 2018, believing Bitcoin could grow from $3,000-$4,000 to a $10 trillion market. He views Bitcoin as a revolutionary network and predicts it could reach $1 million per coin in a decade. Tapiero highlights the "Americanization of crypto" and the rapid growth of stablecoins as drivers of a larger, U.S.-centric crypto capital market. He projects that more global crypto and blockchain businesses will access U.S. financial markets.

Supporting Factors for a Bull Run:

• Halving Cycles: Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle historically precedes a 1.5-year bull phase.
• Institutional Investment: Despite recent ETF outflows, long-term buying by corporations suggests a sustained bullish trend.
• US Market Dominance: The U.S. capital market is further reinforced by massive stablecoin volume and a friendly regulatory backdrop for innovation in crypto/blockchain.
• Maturing Market: Increased maturity, diversification, and revenue generation in the cryptocurrency space.
• Potential Supercycle: Some analysts suggest that Bitcoin remains in a long-term bull market and that the next all-time high in 2025 will kickstart a "supercycle".

Caveats and Alternative Perspectives

While Tapiero is optimistic, other analysts suggest a more prolonged bear market, potentially lasting until late 2026. Doctor Profit, a crypto analyst, believes the current market conditions do not warrant staying liquid in crypto, anticipating a continued bear phase. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for Bitcoin has also fallen below crucial thresholds, indicating the potential for a deeper bear market.

Conclusion

The crypto market remains volatile, and predictions should be taken with caution. While Bitcoin has experienced a bear market in 2025, analysts like Dan Tapiero remain optimistic about the future, suggesting a potential "decade-long" bull run driven by various factors, including increased institutional adoption, technological advancements, and a maturing market.