The Indian stock market is poised for a week potentially shaped by a confluence of domestic and international factors. Investors are closely watching key triggers ranging from the ongoing Q2 (July-September) results season and upcoming CPI figures, to global concerns like the impact of potential tariffs from the U.S. Here's a breakdown of the top five factors expected to influence market movement in the coming days:
1. Q2 Earnings Season Gains Momentum
The second-quarter earnings season is now in full swing, with major companies across various sectors scheduled to release their financial results. HCL Technologies, Indian Bank, and Just Dial Limited will kick off the week, followed by Tech Mahindra, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance. Axis Bank, Indian Railway Finance Corporation, and HDFC Life Insurance will also be closely watched. Reliance Industries Limited, Infosys Limited, and Wipro Limited are set to release their earnings later in the week. These results will provide valuable insights into corporate performance, sector-specific trends, and the overall health of the Indian economy. Investors will be scrutinizing these reports for signs of growth, profitability, and management outlooks, which will likely drive stock-specific and broader market sentiment. Mixed Q2 results from TCS and Tata Elxsi have already tempered some gains.
2. CPI Data Release
The release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be a crucial event for the market. These figures provide a snapshot of inflation and influence the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy decisions. The August 2025 CPI increased to 2.07%, up from 1.61% in July. Expectations regarding the September inflation data could impact market sentiment, with estimates suggesting a potential easing to 1.7%. Investors are hoping that cooling inflation could lead to potential interest rate cuts by the RBI in upcoming meetings.
3. Trump's Tariff Impact on Indian Stocks
The potential impact of tariffs imposed by the U.S., particularly those suggested by former US President Donald Trump, remains a significant concern. These tariffs, including a proposed 26% tariff on Indian imports, have the potential to disrupt various sectors. Industries like automobiles, electronics, and textiles could face challenges, while pharmaceuticals might see exemptions. While the Indian market showed resilience initially, the long-term effects of these tariffs are still being assessed. Some experts believe that India's strong domestic demand and strategic advantages in certain sectors could mitigate the negative impacts.
4. Global Cues and Geopolitical Tensions
Global market trends and geopolitical developments continue to exert influence over Indian equities. Developments such as easing geopolitical tensions and optimism about a potential India-US trade deal could boost investor sentiment. However, escalating US-China trade tensions and concerns about semiconductor supply chains could trigger risk-off sentiment. Investors should remain vigilant and monitor these global cues for potential market-moving events.
5. Technical Levels and Market Momentum
From a technical analysis perspective, the Nifty is approaching a key resistance zone of 25,550-25,600. A breakout above this level, supported by strong volumes, could signal a fresh rally. Immediate resistance is expected at 25,400, followed by 25,580. On the downside, support is anticipated near 25,000 and 24,850. The Nifty gained 1.57% last week, testing key resistance at 25,550. Sectors like Auto, Metal, and PSU Banks are showing relative strength. The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, is hovering near multi-month lows.
