Indian stock markets are bracing for a potentially volatile week ahead, influenced by a mix of global and domestic factors that have shifted over the weekend. Here's a breakdown of ten key developments that could impact market performance:
1. GIFT Nifty Signals Gap-Down Start:
The GIFT Nifty, a derivative contract of Nifty 50 traded on the NSE International Exchange (NSE IX) in GIFT City, is indicating a weak opening for the Indian market. On October 13, 2025, GIFT Nifty was trading around 25,327, a discount of approximately 83 points from Nifty futures' previous close. This suggests a likely gap-down start for Indian benchmark indices. The GIFT Nifty allows global investors to participate in the Indian equity market and acts as an early indicator of market sentiment.
2. Trump's Tariff Threat Resurfaces:
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on imports from China, escalating trade war tensions. This move follows China's recent restrictions on rare earth exports, essential for tech manufacturing. China has responded by saying that it will retaliate if Trump doesn't back down from his tariff threat.
3. Global Market Reaction:
The threat of escalating US-China trade tensions has negatively impacted global markets. The US stock market crashed last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing their largest single-day percentage drops since April 10. Asian markets also traded lower on Monday. Dow futures showed a drop of 887 points ahead of the stock markets' open on Monday.
4. Q2 Results Season Begins:
The second-quarter (Q2) earnings season is underway, with major companies like RIL, Infosys, and HDFC Bank expected to post their results. TCS reported weaker-than-expected September-quarter results, which capped broader market gains on Friday. Investors will be closely watching earnings reports for insights into corporate performance and future outlook.
5. India Inflation Data:
India's inflation data will be a key domestic factor influencing market sentiment. Inflation rates influence gold rates and purchasing power.
6. US Shutdown Developments:
Developments surrounding the US shutdown are also being monitored for their potential impact on global financial markets.
7. IPO Activity:
The strength of India's IPO market is being tested by two billion-dollar IPOs. These IPOs will indicate investor appetite and market resilience.
8. FII and DII Flows:
On October 10, 2025, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in Indian equities, with inflows worth Rs 17.1 billion. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also remained net buyers, adding Rs 4.6 billion.
9. Gold Prices Surge:
Gold prices have surged, with retail investors driving a surge in Sovereign Gold Bond prices amid market frenzy. In Delhi, gold price soared ₹2,700 to storm past ₹1.23 lakh/10 g. Rising gold prices impact jewellery retail shares and consumer purchase patterns.
10. Technical Outlook:
The Nifty 50 closed 0.41% higher at 25,285.35 points on Friday. A move above 25,450 will open the way for further upside towards the June 2025 high of 25,670 points. Immediate resistance for Sensex is at 82,700 – 82,900, and a convincing breakout above these levels could propel the index higher.
In conclusion, Indian stock markets face a complex interplay of factors. Heightened US-China trade tensions, Q2 earnings, and domestic macroeconomic data will likely drive market movements in the coming week.
