China's recent move to expand export controls on rare earth minerals is raising concerns about its potential impact on the U.S. dollar's dominance in the global market. Analyst Luke Gromen suggests that these controls signal the end of the dollar's hegemony. Rare earth minerals are essential for producing various consumer electronics, military defense applications, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and other technologies.

China's dominance in rare earth production and processing gives it significant leverage in trade relations. The country controls approximately 70% to 80% of the global rare earth processing capacity. By restricting exports, China can disrupt the supply chains of countries dependent on these minerals, potentially impacting their economies.

The expanded export restrictions, announced in October 2025, are seen as a response to tariffs imposed by the U.S.. These restrictions could be a strategic move by China to exert pressure on the U.S. in ongoing trade negotiations. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer expressed concerns that these restrictions represent a "global supply-chain power grab".

Some analysts believe that China's actions could accelerate the collapse of the U.S. dollar's value. The logic is that by limiting access to rare earth minerals, China could force other countries to seek alternative currencies or trading mechanisms, thereby reducing reliance on the dollar. Bitcoin and other hard money assets could be a solution to the economic problems caused by currency debasement.

The U.S. has been taking steps to reduce its dependence on China for rare earth minerals. However, establishing alternative supply chains and processing facilities takes time and investment. In the short term, China's control over rare earths provides it with considerable bargaining power.

It is worth noting that some analysts believe that China may not fully implement the export restrictions. They suggest that these actions could be a negotiating tactic to gain concessions from the U.S.. However, the potential for disruption remains, and businesses and governments need to prepare for potential supply chain challenges.

The situation remains fluid, and the long-term consequences of China's rare earth export controls are uncertain. However, this move highlights the growing tensions in global trade and the potential for strategic resources to be used as leverage. The U.S. and its allies are closely monitoring the situation and exploring ways to diversify their supply chains and reduce their dependence on China for critical minerals.