The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections have concluded, delivering a decisive victory to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The NDA secured a landslide win with 202 seats in the 243-member assembly, crushing the opposition Mahagathbandhan. While Nitish Kumar is set for a fifth consecutive term as Chief Minister, the question arises: Does Tejashwi Yadav, leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), have the numbers and political capital to effectively lead the opposition as Leader of Opposition?
The NDA's victory was comprehensive, with the BJP emerging as the single-largest party with 89 seats, followed closely by Janata Dal (United) with 85. Smaller allies like Lok Jan Shakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP-RV), Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAM-S), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) also contributed to the NDA's impressive seat count. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan faced a crushing defeat, securing only 35 seats. The RJD, despite being the largest party within the opposition alliance, managed to win only 25 seats, while the Congress secured a mere six.
Tejashwi Yadav's leadership is under scrutiny following this electoral setback. Despite being projected as the Chief Ministerial face of the Mahagathbandhan, the alliance's performance fell far short of expectations. This raises questions about his ability to mobilize voters beyond the RJD's traditional support base. Moreover, the failure to finalize seat-sharing arrangements among the INDIA bloc allies until the very end, with infighting in 10 seats, further weakened the opposition's chances.
Several factors contributed to the Mahagathbandhan's defeat. The NDA successfully countered Tejashwi Yadav's promises, including the promise of government jobs, with its own schemes and outreach programs, particularly targeting women voters. Nitish Kumar's Mahila Rozgar Yojna, which provided financial assistance to women, appeared to have played a significant role in the NDA's victory. Additionally, the NDA effectively revived the "Jungle Raj" narrative associated with Lalu Prasad Yadav's past governance, undermining Tejashwi's efforts to present a new image for the RJD.
Despite the electoral defeat, Tejashwi Yadav remains a significant political figure in Bihar. The RJD still holds a substantial vote share, and he has demonstrated the potential to connect with younger voters. However, to effectively lead the opposition, he needs to address the shortcomings in his leadership and strategy that were exposed in this election. This includes broadening the party's appeal beyond its traditional base, forging stronger alliances with other opposition parties, and countering the negative narratives that have plagued the RJD.
Looking ahead, Tejashwi Yadav faces a challenging task in rebuilding the RJD and uniting the opposition. Whether he can learn from this defeat and emerge as a stronger leader remains to be seen. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether he has the numbers – not just in terms of seats, but also in terms of political acumen and strategic vision – to be a credible and effective Leader of Opposition in Bihar.
