India's population is projected to stabilize around 1.8 to 1.9 billion by 2080, marking a significant shift in the nation's demographic trajectory. This stabilization is primarily attributed to a declining total fertility rate (TFR), which has fallen below the replacement level, currently standing at 1.9. The country is undergoing a rapid demographic transition, characterized by a sharp decrease in birth rates over the past two decades.
Anil Chandran, the General Secretary of the Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP), highlighted the drastic decline in TFR, noting that it has dropped from 3.5 in 2000 to 1.9. This decline is mainly due to increasing development and education levels, especially among women. Increased female literacy has directly influenced decisions related to marriage and childbearing, leading to smaller families. Couples are now more informed and have greater control over the timing and number of children they choose to have.
The widespread use of contraceptives and increased access to birth control methods have further accelerated the decline in birth rates. Late marriages and growing economic opportunities, especially for women pursuing careers, have also significantly influenced reproductive choices. Development is inversely proportional to birth rates, with illiterate groups still having fertility levels above three, while educated groups have a TFR ranging between 1.5 and 1.8.
Kerala serves as an example, having achieved replacement-level fertility between 1987 and 1989 and now having a TFR of around 1.5. West Bengal has also experienced a sharp decline in fertility rates. According to the Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2023, the state's TFR has dropped to 1.3, down from 1.7 in 2013, a decline of nearly 18 percent. This places West Bengal among the lowest in the country, on par with Tamil Nadu and just above Delhi.
While declining birth rates present a positive outlook for population stabilization, improved healthcare has led to a rise in life expectancy, which presents new challenges such as elderly care. With younger people migrating for work, solutions like elderly day-care centers are being discussed to address these challenges.
The IASP, founded in 1971, comprises approximately 1,100 demographers and population scientists who collaborate with organizations such as UNFPA and the Population Council to address issues related to demographic change. The stabilization of India's population by 2080 reflects significant social and educational changes across the country and marks a crucial turning point in its demographic history.
