Bitcoin is facing a challenging end to 2025, needing a rally of 6.24% to avoid closing the year in the red. As of December 28, 2025, the price of Bitcoin hovered around $87,755, nearly 10% lower year-to-date despite significant events such as the approval of spot ETFs and increasing institutional demand.
Analyst Perspectives
Market analyst Alex Puckrin highlighted that Bitcoin needs to rise by 6.24% to close above its yearly opening price of approximately $93,374. If this target is not met, 2025 would mark the first post-halving year with a negative annual close. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of over $125,000 in October but has since fallen by about 30%, forming a local bottom around $80,000 in November. This correction has led to debates among analysts about whether the bull run has ended and a new bear market has begun.
One analyst, Ted, pointed out that Bitcoin is trading just above a support zone and is awaiting a clear direction. A bullish signal would be reclaiming the $90,000 level, while a retest of the $84,000-$85,000 support level could indicate further decline.
Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin has been trading below its 365-day moving average since November, disrupting an uptrend that began in 2023. The current technical indicators suggest moderate buying pressure without reaching overbought conditions. Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin has experienced 47% green days with 2.15% price volatility.
Macroeconomic Factors
The near-term direction of Bitcoin is increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic factors as liquidity decreases toward the year's end. All eyes are on the U.S. Federal Reserve and the potential for continued interest rate cuts. While the Federal Reserve issued three 25 basis point interest rate cuts in 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has adopted a cautious stance regarding future policy. As of December 28, 2025, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that only 18.8% of investors expect an interest rate cut in January.
Institutional and Regulatory Landscape
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier in 2025 was initially seen as a watershed moment, unlocking regulated exposure for institutional and retail investors. However, the impact of these ETFs has not been as strong as anticipated by some. Bitcoin's evolution in 2025 has been defined by institutional adoption and long-term holder distribution, marking its transition into financial infrastructure.
Alternative Predictions
AI models offer varied, but generally conservative, forecasts for Bitcoin's year-end price. ChatGPT projects BTC at $92,000, while Claude forecasts a more modest $90,000. DeepSeek falls in the middle ground, predicting $88,000.
Concluding Remarks
Bitcoin's performance in the final days of 2025 will be crucial in determining whether it can end the year on a positive note. Overcoming the 6.24% rally requirement hinges on a combination of factors, including reclaiming key price levels, positive market sentiment, and favorable macroeconomic developments.
