The Indian stock market is poised for a positive opening on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, influenced by a mix of global cues. Here's a breakdown of seven key factors that have shaped the market overnight:
1. GIFT Nifty Signals Positive Start:
The GIFT Nifty, a derivative contract that represents India's Nifty 50 index and is traded on the NSE International Exchange (NSE IX) in GIFT City, is signaling a positive opening for the Indian stock market. As of this morning, GIFT Nifty was trading around 26,056, a premium of approximately 70 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. This indicates a likely positive start for the Sensex and Nifty 50. GIFT Nifty replaced the SGX Nifty, which was traded on the Singapore Exchange, marking a shift in how global investors access Indian equity markets. It is a US dollar-denominated contract based on the Nifty 50 index. It provides foreign investors a way to participate in the Indian equity market with minimized constraints.
2. Dow Jones' Record Close:
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) achieved its third consecutive record close. The Dow Jones rose 52.27 points, or 0.10%, to close at 50,188.14. This positive momentum in the US market can often translate to positive sentiment in Asian markets, including India. The Dow's surge reflects money flowing into value and defensive stocks. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, or 23.01 points, to 6,941.81. The Nasdaq Composite ended 136.20 points lower, or 0.59%, at 23,102.47.
3. MSCI Rejig Impact:
The rejig of the MSCI Global Standard Index, announced on February 11 and effective February 27, is expected to drive significant capital flows into Indian equities. Aditya Birla Capital and L&T Finance have been added to the index, while Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corp (IRCTC) has been removed. Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research forecasts potential inflows exceeding $500 million due to this reshuffle. These changes will come into effect on February 27, 2026. Following the rejig, India's weight in the MSCI Standard Index remains unchanged at 14.1%.
4. Asian Markets' Positive Trend:
Most Asian markets are trading higher today. South Korea's Kospi gained 0.18%, while the Kosdaq rose 0.33%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index futures also indicated a higher opening.
5. US Economic Data and Fed Rate Outlook:
US Treasury yields fell after disappointing December 2025 retail sales data, which showed nearly flat consumer spending. This raised concerns about a slowing US economy. The probability of an April rate cut rose to 36.9% from Monday's 32.2%. However, consensus remains that rates will hold steady until June. Investors are awaiting key economic data, including the non-farm payrolls report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026, to gauge the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.
6. India-US Trade Deal:
The interim framework for the India-US trade deal continues to influence market sentiment. Tariffs on India's exports to the US have been reduced from 50% to 18%, enhancing the competitiveness of Indian exports. Jefferies has adjusted its India model portfolio, increasing exposure to metals and US-exposed beneficiaries while reducing IT sector weightings.
7. Technical View:
Analysts suggest that the Indian market appears to be in a gradual recovery and consolidation phase. The near-term direction is likely to be driven by global macro developments, currency movements, and foreign fund flows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a bullish crossover, suggesting potential upward movement with initial resistance at 26,000–26,200. Support is placed at 25,650. India VIX, a measure of market fear, rose 2.9% to settle at 12.19.