The Indian stock market is expected to open higher on Wednesday, June 25, 2025, influenced by a combination of global cues that have shifted overnight. These include developments surrounding Gift Nifty, an Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement, and testimony from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Let's delve into the key factors driving these changes:

1. Gift Nifty's Positive Start: Gift Nifty, formerly known as SGX Nifty, is a derivative contract linked to India's Nifty 50 index. It serves as an early indicator of how the Indian market might react when it opens. Today, Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,160 level, a premium of approximately 88 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. This suggests a likely gap-up opening for the Indian stock market indices. The GIFT Nifty provides a global trading window for Indian equities, making it accessible to international investors and bridging the time gap between global and Indian markets, offering better liquidity and hedging opportunities.

2. Israel-Iran Ceasefire Impact: Reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran have eased geopolitical tensions, positively impacting market sentiment. This follows a period of escalating conflict that had created uncertainty and volatility in global markets. The announcement of the ceasefire, reportedly brokered by US President Donald Trump and Qatar, led to a decline in oil prices and a rise in stock indices globally. However, some reports indicate the ceasefire remains fragile, with accusations of violations from both sides.

3. Crude Oil Price Decline: The ceasefire news significantly impacted oil prices, with Brent crude falling. This decline is viewed favorably by investors as it reduces inflationary pressures and supports consumption trends, contributing to economic growth. Concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz had previously driven prices higher.

4. Global Market Rally: The positive sentiment surrounding the potential ceasefire fueled a rally in global markets. Asian markets traded higher, and the US stock market also ended higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw gains.

5. US Federal Reserve's Stance: Investors are closely watching the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is providing testimony before Congress, offering insights into the central bank's views on the economy and inflation. Market expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have also contributed to the positive market sentiment. However, Powell stated that the Fed is in a "watch and wait mode" and doesn't need to rush into rate cuts. He indicated that meaningful tariff inflation effects are expected in the coming months and that the Fed is being careful and cautious with inflation.

6. Rupee's Appreciation: The Indian rupee recovered against the US dollar, boosted by improved global risk sentiment due to the ceasefire reports and a decline in crude oil prices. A weaker dollar and positive domestic equity market sentiments further supported the rupee's rise.

7. FII and DII Activity: On Monday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers of Indian equities, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers.

8. Technical Levels to Watch: The Nifty's failure to surpass the 25,200 resistance level suggests the presence of bears in the market. However, rotational buying across key sectors and strength in midcap and smallcap segments continues to offer trading opportunities.

9. Other Global Economic Data: Investors are also keeping an eye on US economic data, including PMI figures and Treasury yields, for further clues about the health of the global economy.

10. Market Sentiment: Overall, the market sentiment is positive, driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions and hopes for future interest rate cuts. However, caution is advised due to the fragility of the ceasefire and ongoing economic uncertainties.