The United States risks losing India as a strategic partner due to escalating trade tensions under President Trump, according to Christopher Padilla, former US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade. These tensions, primarily stemming from tariff disputes and disagreements over India's energy policy, are raising concerns about the long-term health of the India-US relationship.
Trump's administration has recently imposed a 50% tariff on certain Indian goods in response to India's continued imports of Russian oil. The White House cited national security and foreign policy concerns, arguing that India's oil purchases from Russia pose an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to the United States. This move has been met with strong criticism from India, with the Ministry of External Affairs calling the tariffs "unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable" and vowing to take necessary actions to protect its national interests.
The tariff hike is the latest in a series of trade disputes between the two countries. Trump has long accused India of being a "tariff king" and has expressed frustration over the trade deficit between the two nations. Talks aimed at reaching a bilateral trade deal have so far proven unsuccessful.
The situation is further complicated by the United States' increasing engagement with Pakistan, India's regional rival. The Trump administration has recently concluded a trade deal with Pakistan that has seen tariff levels drop, a move that has raised concerns in New Delhi. Some analysts believe that the US is using its relationship with Pakistan as leverage to pressure India.
Despite the escalating tensions, the United States maintains that India remains a crucial strategic partner. The State Department has emphasized the need for open dialogue to resolve concerns, including trade imbalances and India's Russian oil purchases. However, the imposition of tariffs and the deepening engagement with Pakistan are sending mixed signals.
The current situation puts Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a difficult position. He has cultivated warm ties with both President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. India's longstanding relationship with Russia, particularly in defense and energy, is a key factor in its foreign policy. The US views India's continued ties with Russia as undermining sanctions against Moscow.
Some experts believe that the US-India relationship is currently at its lowest point in decades. The ongoing trade disputes and disagreements over foreign policy are creating a sense of unease and mistrust between the two countries. The question is whether the two countries can navigate these challenges and maintain their strategic partnership in the years to come. The US approach is to address disagreements directly.
The situation is evolving, with India's state refiners reportedly pausing Russian oil buys amid US tariff pressure. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Modi and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have pledged to deepen their strategic partnership, even as Brazil faces similar US tariffs over Russian oil imports. These developments suggest a potential shift in alliances and a growing defiance of US pressure.
