The Indian stock market is currently experiencing a period of cautious optimism, influenced by a combination of global and domestic factors. On Tuesday, September 9, 2025, the benchmark Nifty 50 index closed at 24,868.60, a gain of 0.39%, while the BSE Sensex ended at 80,101.32, up by 0.39%. Market sentiment is being lifted by rising hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and recent GST rate cuts.

Nifty 50 Trade Setup

Technical analysis suggests a positive consolidation phase for the Nifty 50. According to Bajaj Broking, the daily chart shows a doji candle formation with a higher high and a higher low, indicating likely consolidation amid stock-specific action. The short-term outlook remains volatile, with a fresh uptrend rally possible only after crossing the 24,900 level. Above this, the index could move towards 25,000 and 25,100. Key support zones are identified at 24,650 and 24,600.

Shivani Kumaresan, a SEBI-registered analyst, noted that the Nifty faces resistance around the 24,900–25,000 zone, with a breakout above this range crucial for a fresh rally. Immediate support is at 24,700, followed by 24,620–24,520, while immediate resistance is seen at 24,800, followed by 24,900–25,000.

Analysts expect sideways-to-positive momentum if the Nifty sustains above 24,700. A breakout above 24,800 could push the index towards 24,900–25,000 quickly, while a breach of 24,620 could open the gates for 24,400 and increase volatility. The trading range is expected to be between 24,500 and 25,000 unless a breakout or breakdown occurs.

US Fed Rate Cut Impact

Expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut are influencing market sentiment. Historically, stock markets tend to perform better during rate-cutting regimes. The S&P 500 has returned an average of 1.7% per month during Fed interest-rate-cutting periods, compared to a negative 0.5% monthly loss when rates rise. A rate cut is anticipated to lower borrowing costs, which can boost corporate profits and encourage business expansion. The markets have fully priced in a 25 bp rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming FOMC meeting and priced in a 10% chance for a 50 bp rate cut.

However, some analysts caution that job declines could signal weakening consumer spending and a potential recession, making a rate cut merely a "band-aid". It's crucial to monitor inflation data, corporate earnings prospects, and geopolitical risks.

India-US Trade Deal

The potential for an India-US trade deal continues to be a factor. United States President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that India and the US are continuing negotiations to address trade barriers, expressing optimism for a successful conclusion.

A trade deal could serve as a short-term catalyst for the domestic market and may help it break out of its trading range. It may also attract foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to sectors like manufacturing, technology, and healthcare. Conversely, delays in finalizing a trade deal could negatively impact the Indian economy and stock market.

Stocks to Buy or Sell

Market experts are providing stock recommendations for Wednesday. Stocks that witnessed strong buying interest include Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports SEZ, HCL Tech, Nestle India, TCS, and Bajaj Finserv. Stocks experiencing selling pressure include Eternal, NTPC, Titan Company, UltraTech Cement, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, and Axis Bank.

Analysts at 5paisa have identified Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd., Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd., Radico Khaitan Ltd., PNB Housing Finance Ltd., and Archean Chemical Industries Ltd. as potential stocks to buy.