Bitcoin has experienced a volatile ride in recent months, leading to debates about the state of its bull market. Despite a recent pullback from its all-time high of $124,000 reached in August, analysts suggest that the bull market is not over. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin must reach $104,000 to repeat past bull market dips.

Current Market Sentiment

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $112,770. Recent analysis suggests Bitcoin may remain range-bound in the near term, but volatility risks are building. A report from CryptoOnchain indicates that Bitcoin's price is expected to see modest shifts in the coming weeks, trading in a $108,000–$120,000 range through most of September. However, uncertainty is expected to surge in late September, with the probability of a sudden breakout increasing significantly.

Despite the short-term volatility, long-term sentiment around Bitcoin remains bullish. Growing institutional demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions could propel Bitcoin toward new all-time highs. Bitcoin's reputation as a hedge against traditional financial instability also contributes to its strong demand as a store of value.

Technical Analysis and Predictions

Technical analysis reveals a compression pattern, suggesting a potential significant price movement ahead as Bitcoin consolidates between $103,000 and $109,000. Long-term fractal analysis suggests Bitcoin's bullish phase may continue for several more months, potentially reaching price targets up to $137,000.

The Bitcoin Decay Channel, a market prediction model, presents a potential peak zone between $205,000 and $292,000 within the next 12-15 months. Sminston With explains that the present Bitcoin market cycle could see a price top between late 2025 and late 2026. If Bitcoin peaks in December 2025, the price range would sit between $205,000 and $230,000. However, should the cycle extend into 2026, projections rise incrementally, reaching as high as $250,000–$292,000 by year-end 2026.

Long-Term Holder Confidence

Long-term holders (LTH) continue to show strong conviction in Bitcoin's upward trajectory. They hold significant unrealized profits without signs of mass distribution, supporting the argument that the macro trend remains bullish. CryptoQuant analyst AbramChart highlights that LTH continue to anchor Bitcoin's bullish narrative, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric remaining solidly above 0.5.

Market Cycle Analysis

Bitcoin's market cycle is characterized by alternating periods of appreciation and depreciation. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halving events, which happen approximately every four years. These events reduce the reward miners receive for mining new blocks, leading to steep price increases driven by speculation and a decrease in the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation.

The Bitcoin market cycle can be divided into four phases: Accumulation, Appreciation, Bubble, and Reversal. The accumulation phase occurs when prices are low, and forward-thinking buyers accumulate Bitcoin. The appreciation phase is marked by persistent demand and rising prices. In the bubble phase, the price eclipses the previous all-time high and moves exponentially to the upside. The reversal phase marks the beginning of a new cycle, with Bitcoin's price rapidly declining from the previous cycle's highs.

Potential for a Q4 Breakout

A new analysis suggests a bullish trajectory for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2025. The analysis highlights key patterns observed in Bitcoin's price behavior over Q4 of 2023 and 2024, with a falling wedge pattern suggesting a likely breakout above $185,000 in Q4 2025.

Conclusion

While Bitcoin has experienced recent volatility, analysts remain optimistic about its potential for further gains. Strong technical foundations, growing institutional interest, and favorable macroeconomic conditions could propel Bitcoin toward new all-time highs. Long-term holders' confidence and historical patterns also support the case for continued optimism. However, traders should be aware of potential short-term volatility and the possibility of a September correction.