In the wake of the recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam, India has decided to abstain from participating in the upcoming Neutral Expert meeting concerning the Kishanganga-Ratle hydropower dispute with Pakistan. This decision underscores the heightened tensions between the two nations following the deadly attack on April 22, 2025, which resulted in the loss of 26 lives, predominantly tourists.

The Pahalgam attack, which targeted Hindu tourists in the Baisaran Valley, has been attributed to The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). The incident has been widely condemned, with India accusing Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism. Pakistan has denied these allegations.

India's decision to stay away from the Neutral Expert meeting signals a firm stance that, under the current circumstances, treaty provisions are inoperative. The Neutral Expert, appointed under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), had insisted on proceeding with the meeting in November, but India has reiterated its position.

The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, governs the sharing of waters from the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. It allocates the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan. The treaty also provides a mechanism for resolving disputes through a three-step process: the Permanent Indus Commission, a Neutral Expert, and a Court of Arbitration.

Following the Pahalgam attack, India has taken several measures, including suspending the IWT and closing the Attari border crossing. India has also reportedly cut off visa services and recalled its diplomatic staff in Pakistan. These actions reflect a significant deterioration in bilateral relations, with some analysts describing the situation as a strategic standoff.

In response to India's suspension of the IWT, Pakistan has convened meetings of its National Security Committee and has urged India to resume normal functioning of the treaty. Pakistan has also denied involvement in the Pahalgam attack and expressed willingness to cooperate with an international inquiry.

The World Bank, which has historically played a role in mediating water disputes between India and Pakistan, has clarified that it will not intervene to "fix" India's suspension of the treaty.

India's decision to suspend the IWT has raised concerns about potential water shortages in Pakistan, particularly in the agricultural sector. Some reports indicate that water levels in Pakistan's major reservoirs have dropped, leading to a decline in agricultural production.

Amidst these developments, India has also been exploring options to maximize its use of the Indus waters, including constructing canals to divert water to Rajasthan.

The situation remains tense, with little indication of an immediate resolution. India has maintained that the IWT will remain in abeyance until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably stops supporting cross-border terrorism. The future of the Indus Waters Treaty and its impact on regional stability remain uncertain.