The political landscape in Bihar is witnessing a significant shift as the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] and the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] gear up for the upcoming assembly elections in November 2025 as 'equals'. This marks a departure from the traditional "Big Brother, Small Brother" dynamic that has characterized their alliance in the past.
Seat-Sharing Agreement
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which includes the BJP, JD(U), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP(RV)], Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) [HAM(S)], and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM), has finalized its seat-sharing arrangement. Both the BJP and JD(U) will contest 101 seats each out of the 243 assembly segments in Bihar. The remaining seats have been allocated to other NDA partners. Chirag Paswan's LJP(RV) will contest 29 seats, while HAM(S) and RLM will each contest six seats.
Shift in Power Dynamics
This equal seat distribution signifies a major change in the power dynamics within the NDA alliance in Bihar. For the first time, the JD(U) will not be contesting more seats than the BJP. In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the JD(U) contested 115 seats, while the BJP contested 110. This time, both parties have agreed to contest an equal number of seats, indicating a more balanced partnership.
Several factors have contributed to this shift. The BJP's consistently rising strike rate (seats won) in past elections, coupled with a sharp drop in the JD(U)'s strike rate over the last four elections, has played a significant role. In the 2020 elections, the BJP won 74 of the 110 seats it contested, with a strike rate of 68%, while the JD(U) won only 43 of the 115 seats it contested, with a strike rate below 38%. This is a sharp decline from 2010, when the JD(U) won 115 of the 141 seats it contested, boasting an 82% strike rate.
Impact of Chirag Paswan
The inclusion of Chirag Paswan's LJP(RV) in the NDA alliance has also influenced the seat-sharing arrangement. Paswan's decision to contest the 2020 election separately is suspected to have been at the behest of the BJP and resulted in JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar's brief exit from the NDA. In the 2020 elections, the LJP contested 135 seats and won one. This time, the LJP(RV) has been allocated 29 seats.
Political Implications
The BJP's rise in Bihar is also attributed to its strong organizational network, leveraging the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and pushing for urban modernization. The party has strategically appointed Samrat Choudhary, a Kushwaha, as the state president and deputy chief minister, aiming to connect with Luv-Kush voters while also protecting upper-caste positions.
The new seat-sharing arrangement indicates that the BJP is no longer willing to play second fiddle to the JD(U) in Bihar. While Nitish Kumar remains the Chief Ministerial face of the NDA alliance, the BJP seems determined to assert its position as an equal partner.
Opposition's Strategy
As the NDA finalizes its seat-sharing arrangement, the opposition INDIA bloc, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, is yet to disclose its seat-sharing strategy. The RJD claims that the BJP aims to eliminate the JD(U) after the elections and take the Chief Minister's seat. The opposition alliance aims to tap into the frustrations of the youth, address economic struggles, and leverage shifting caste dynamics to make a comeback in the 2025 elections.
