A recent analysis by a Harvard professor indicates that India is outpacing both the United States and China in terms of real GDP growth in the post-COVID era. This projection highlights India's strong economic performance and its potential to lead global growth in the coming years.
India's Growth Trajectory
India's economy has demonstrated resilience and a capacity for rapid expansion. The Indian GDP grew by 6.5% in the fiscal year 2024-25, marking it as the slowest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic but still a significant figure. This growth is supported by stronger consumer spending, increased investments, and a robust agricultural sector. The gross domestic product expanded by 7.8% in the second quarter of 2025. Furthermore, projections estimate India's GDP to grow at 6.3% by the end of 2025, and maintain a trajectory of around 6.2% in 2026 and 6.0% in 2027. This positions India as one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. According to IMF data, India has become a $4 trillion economy in 2025, ranking as the 4th largest globally, on par with Japan.
Several factors contribute to India's promising economic outlook. The country's ability to diversify into new areas of production and export is a key driver. India has expanded its export base to include more complex sectors such as chemicals, vehicles, and electronics. This diversification, combined with a focus on technological advancement and a skilled labor force, positions India for continued growth.
US Economic Performance
In comparison, the United States' economy has shown a different pattern. Real GDP growth in the U.S. was recorded at 2.8% in 2024. While there was a notable increase of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, the overall trajectory indicates a slowing pace. Projections suggest a real GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. The U.S. economy is facing headwinds such as tariff-related cost increases, policy uncertainty, and elevated interest rates. Despite these challenges, the U.S. remains the world's largest economy by nominal GDP.
China's Economic Landscape
China's economic growth has also experienced shifts. In 2024, China's GDP growth was 5%, slightly down from 5.4% in 2023. The Chinese economy is expected to reach 5.0% growth by the end of 2025. However, there are concerns about ongoing structural challenges, including a divergence between a robust industrial sector and weak domestic consumption. Trade tensions and a prolonged property slump also pose pressures.
Factors Driving India's Lead
The Harvard professor's analysis suggests that India's economic policies and demographic advantages are key factors in its growth acceleration. India's substantial reserves and its role as a provider of support to other countries indicate its strong financial position. Furthermore, the shift in global priorities towards resilience and "just-in-case" strategies benefits India, as firms seek to reduce dependence on single sources like China.
Future Prospects
Looking ahead, India has the potential to achieve significant economic expansion. Some forecasts suggest that India's economy could grow sixfold by the 100th anniversary of its independence. This growth would be driven by greater productive capacity, technological advancements, and an increasingly skilled labor force.
While India's per capita income remains relatively low compared to other major economies, it has shown substantial growth over the past decade. Continuous reforms in compliance, industry, business, labor, and employability could further boost India's economic potential.
