The Indian stock market is currently navigating a complex landscape, influenced by both domestic and international factors. Investors are closely watching the Nifty 50's trade setup, progress in India-US trade negotiations, the potential impact of Trump's tariffs, and movements in gold prices. Here's a breakdown of these key elements and a look at potential stocks to consider.
Nifty 50 Trade Setup
The Nifty 50, a benchmark index representing the weighted average of 50 of the largest Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange, has found key support levels at 26,000 and 25,850, which corresponds to the 20-day simple moving average. According to Amol Athawale, Vice President of Technical Research, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue as long as the market remains above these levels.
However, the Nifty has also formed a "bear candle," signaling consolidation amidst weak global cues near its all-time high of 26,277. A successful breakout above this all-time high could pave the way for further upside, potentially reaching 26,500 in the coming weeks. Conversely, failure to surpass the 26,277 mark may lead to consolidation within the 26,277-25,700 range. Short-term support is expected around the 25,500-25,700 range.
India-US Trade Talks
The first phase of the proposed India-US bilateral trade agreement (BTA) is reportedly nearing closure. This initial phase is expected to address the 50% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Indian goods, as well as resolve America's market access issues. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has indicated that "good news" is imminent, provided the deal is fair, equitable, and balanced, safeguarding the interests of Indian farmers, fishermen, and small industries.
The US has been India's largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25, with bilateral trade valued at USD 131.84 billion. A successful trade agreement could potentially double bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030.
Trump Tariffs and Gold Prices
President Trump's tariff policies have historically created volatility across markets and have often provided momentum for gold as investors seek stability. In April 2025, gold prices surged to unprecedented levels due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the United States' tariff policies. The announcement of new trade tariffs prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets, driving gold prices upward.
However, it's important to note that gold prices can also experience sharp corrections following tariff announcements, as seen in early April 2025. The interplay between market dynamics and precious metals pricing can be complex, with investor positioning reflecting bullish sentiment on gold price increases due to tariffs and other economic factors.
Stocks to Buy
Several factors can influence stock recommendations, including company performance, sector trends, and overall market sentiment.
Based on recent reports, here are some stocks that analysts are currently recommending:
- GMR Airports Ltd (GMRAIRPORT)
- Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL)
- InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO): IndiGo may gain from lower delays, faster turnarounds, and improved fuel efficiency.
- Spicejet Ltd (SPICEJET): SpiceJet may also benefit from improved infrastructure.
- Data Patterns (India) Ltd (DATAPATTNS)
- Cyient Ltd (CYIENT)
Other stocks that may be worth considering for long-term investment include:
- Reliance Industries
- Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)
- HDFC Bank
- ICICI Bank
- Infosys
- Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on available information and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with a qualified financial advisor.
