Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a significant downturn, dropping 42% from its all-time high of $4,950, leaving investors questioning where the price might find its bottom. As of December 16, 2025, Ethereum is trading around $2,925, a level precariously close to its November low.
Several factors contribute to this bearish sentiment. Recent data indicates declining institutional demand for U.S.-based spot Ethereum ETFs, with five consecutive days of outflows totaling $533.1 million. This de-risking from Ethereum ETFs suggests a waning confidence among institutional investors.
Market analysts are weighing in on potential support levels. Daan Crypto Trades noted that Ethereum's market structure and ecosystem have matured, but the recent price action has underperformed Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The analyst suggests that if the $2,800 support level fails, the next major support lies around $2,100. Glassnode data reinforces this, identifying a significant support level at $2,100, where approximately 2.1 million ETH were previously acquired.
However, Polymarket bettors estimate only an 11% chance of ETH dropping to the $2,000-$2,200 range before the end of 2025. But, they foresee an 83% chance of the price revisiting $2,500 and a 59% chance of it falling to $2,000 in 2026. Ethereum's low for 2025 was $1,380 in April, and it last traded at $2,100 on May 9.
While a 42% drawdown seems substantial, it's worth noting that previous bear cycles have seen price declines of 80-90%. This historical context suggests that further downside is possible, although not necessarily inevitable.
Technical analysis offers further insights. Ethereum has fallen below trendlines, struggling to find support. This bearish signal could lead to further price declines if buyers don't step in to establish a firm footing.
Adding to the uncertainty, the broader cryptocurrency market is experiencing mixed signals. Bitcoin has also struggled, trading at $86,300, down 33% from its high. Macroeconomic factors also play a role. Contradictory non-farm payroll data caused market confusion, with a rising unemployment rate offset by an increase in employment numbers. This mixed data makes it difficult to predict the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy, adding another layer of uncertainty to the crypto market.
In conclusion, Ethereum's price is at a critical juncture. The $2,800 support level is crucial in preventing a further drop to $2,100. Declining institutional interest, technical indicators, and macroeconomic uncertainties all contribute to the current bearish outlook. Whether Ethereum can find a bottom and rebound remains to be seen, but investors should closely monitor key support levels and market sentiment to navigate these turbulent waters.
