Galaxy Research, a division of Galaxy Digital, projects that stablecoins are poised to surpass the transaction volume of the Automated Clearing House (ACH) system by 2026. This forecast is grounded in current transaction data and anticipated regulatory developments, signaling a major shift in the digital payments landscape.
Stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value relative to a reference asset like the U.S. dollar, have already demonstrated significant growth. Their transaction volumes have eclipsed major credit card networks like Visa and are now roughly half the volume of the ACH system. The stablecoin market capitalization currently stands at approximately $309 billion, with Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC leading the way.
Several factors contribute to this anticipated surge. Thad Pinakiewicz, Vice President of Research at Galaxy, notes the stablecoin supply has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 30%-40%, with transaction volumes increasing in tandem. Further bolstering this growth is the expected implementation of definitions under the GENIUS Act in early 2026. This regulatory clarity is seen as a crucial step in transforming stablecoins into credible payment instruments.
The rise of stablecoins isn't limited to the crypto realm. Financial institutions and payments companies are increasingly entering the stablecoin market. Western Union, for example, plans to launch its own US dollar-pegged stablecoin, the US Dollar Payment Token, on the Solana blockchain. Sony Bank is also reportedly preparing a US dollar-pegged stablecoin for use across its US ecosystem.
This mainstream adoption will likely stem from using stablecoins for payments, payroll, and commerce, especially in areas like international payroll, contractor payments, marketplaces, SaaS billing, and cross-border commerce. Stablecoins offer a solution to the challenges of traditional systems, enabling instant, global, and 24/7 dollar movement without the delays and fees associated with SWIFT, correspondent banking, and other intermediaries.
The increasing regulatory clarity surrounding stablecoins is also reshaping global capital flows. Stablecoin issuers have become significant buyers of US government debt, strengthening the dollar's role. Other regions are responding with their own regulatory frameworks, such as Europe's MiCA. The UK, however, faces pressure to accelerate its regulatory regime to avoid becoming a user rather than an issuer of stablecoins. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK is developing stablecoin rules to encourage firms to tap into the growing market and has introduced a stablecoin sandbox to foster payments innovation.
While the GENIUS Act has had a profound impact in the US, with estimates suggesting 99% of the total stablecoin market capitalization is now dollarized, other countries are also making strides in the regulation of stablecoins. These regulatory advancements are paving the way for more widespread adoption and integration of stablecoins into the traditional financial system.
Despite the optimism, predicting the future, especially in the rapidly evolving crypto space is challenging. Galaxy Research acknowledges the inherent unpredictability of 2026 but maintains that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs that year. The convergence of private sector digital assets and public finance, marked by the potential for fully backed, regulated, and onshore-issued Sterling stablecoins, points to a transformative future for payments.
