Nifty 50 is predicted to start the week of January 5, 2026, on a firm footing, but U.S.-Venezuela tensions inject an element of uncertainty into the market. On Friday, January 2, 2026, the Nifty 50 index reached a lifetime peak of 26,340 before closing at 26,328.55, a gain of 182 points or 0.70 percent. The BSE Sensex also climbed, settling at 85,762.01.

Geopolitical Concerns

Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela are escalating, with recent reports of explosions in Caracas and other states. Venezuela has blamed the United States for the attacks, with President Nicolas Maduro declaring a national emergency and implementing defense plans. The U.S. has increased its military presence in the region, citing concerns over drug trafficking. These geopolitical tensions could impact market sentiment and influence Nifty's performance on Monday.

Expert Analysis and Predictions

Experts suggest that Nifty has immediate support at 26,200. In the short term, the bulls may aim for a target of 26,500. HDFC Securities noted that Nifty has surpassed previous barriers at 26,236 and 26,325, indicating a breakout from its consolidation zone. The near-term upside potential is around 26,500 and beyond. Immediate support has shifted to around 26,100, which is expected to act as a cushion during dips.

Centrum Broking analysts point out that Nifty is trading above key moving averages, maintaining a positive trend. With the base now around 26,100, the upside potential extends towards 26,500 in the near term.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

For Monday, January 5, 2026, keep an eye on these levels:

• Resistance: 26,406 - 26,484 - 26,628
• Support: 26,185 - 26,041 - 25,963

Additional technical analysis indicates:

• Immediate support is placed at 26,000–26,050.
• A key resistance corridor remains at 26,200–26,300. A move above this could lead to 26,500.
• Breaking below 25,900 may lead to a pullback toward 25,800.

Market Dynamics

Trading activity saw Nifty trading comfortably above its key support levels but facing resistance near the 26,200–26,230 zone. The index remains range-bound as the market awaits a fresh trigger. The broader structure remains positive, with Nifty holding above its moving averages.

Global Factors

Escalating conflicts, including the U.S.-Venezuela situation, are contributing to supply concerns. The U.S. military has been intervening against Venezuela, targeting boats and স্থাপনা. These actions, along with situations in Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East, may impact crude oil prices and overall market stability.

Overall Outlook

The Nifty 50 index is maintaining stability above the 26,000 level. Investors are positioning themselves for the Q3 earnings season, anticipating resilient results in consumer-oriented sectors. Domestic institutional inflows are providing support, offsetting selling by foreign investors. Monitor the geopolitical developments and key support and resistance levels to navigate the market effectively on Monday.