How the Fall of Iran Could Change the World, Impacting Even India

Iran is currently facing a period of intense instability, with widespread protests posing a significant challenge to the ruling Islamic regime. Triggered by economic grievances, these protests have rapidly evolved into a broader anti-government movement, prompting a severe crackdown by authorities and drawing strong international reactions. A potential collapse of the Iranian regime could trigger a cascade of consequences, reshaping the geopolitical landscape and impacting countries worldwide, including India.

The roots of the current unrest lie in a confluence of factors, most notably the country's economic woes. Years of economic mismanagement, corruption, and the impact of international sanctions have contributed to soaring inflation, a plummeting currency, and rising unemployment. The Iranian rial has fallen to record lows, eroding the purchasing power of ordinary citizens and sparking widespread discontent. The government's recent decision to introduce a new tier to its fuel subsidy system, further increasing prices, has added fuel to the fire.

The protests that began in late December 2025 quickly spread from Tehran's Grand Bazaar to universities and cities across the country. What started as demonstrations against economic hardship has transformed into a broader movement against the clerical leadership, with protesters openly calling for regime change. The scale, intensity, and persistence of the unrest represent one of the most serious challenges the Islamic Republic has faced since its establishment in 1979.

In response, the Iranian government has unleashed a harsh crackdown, deploying security forces to quell the protests. Reports indicate mass arrests, intimidation, and the use of lethal force against demonstrators. The government has also imposed internet blackouts, restricting the flow of information and making it difficult to verify the full extent of the situation. Despite the crackdown, the protests have continued, underscoring the depth of public anger and frustration.

The potential consequences of a collapse of the Iranian regime are far-reaching. Some analysts fear a descent into civil war, with competing factions vying for power. Others warn of a power vacuum that could be exploited by extremist groups, further destabilizing the region. A collapse could also lead to the fragmentation of Iran, a multi-ethnic country where Persians make up only about half the population.

For India, the implications of such a scenario are significant. India and Iran share a long history of cultural and economic ties. India views Iran as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, and has invested heavily in projects like the Chabahar Port to enhance connectivity. A stable Iran is crucial for India's energy security and its efforts to counter Pakistan's influence in the region.

A collapse of the Iranian regime could disrupt these strategic interests. Instability in Iran could jeopardize India's access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, undermining its connectivity initiatives. It could also lead to a surge in oil prices, impacting India's economy. Furthermore, a chaotic Iran could become a breeding ground for extremism, posing a threat to regional security.

Despite these concerns, India has maintained a cautious approach to the crisis,balancing its strategic interests with its commitment to non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. New Delhi's imperative must be in de-risking critical strategic interests, including the Chabahar Port. However, the government has expressed concern over the violence and called for restraint. India's approach will likely be guided by its long-term strategic interests and its desire to maintain stability in the region.

The crisis in Iran is a complex and evolving situation with potentially far-reaching consequences. While the future of the Iranian regime remains uncertain, its trajectory will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the world, including India.