Replacing a manager midseason is a monumental decision, fraught with complexities that extend far beyond the simple desire for a quick fix. While a change at the helm might seem like the perfect way to jolt a team out of a slump, the reality is often far more nuanced. As Jonathan Wilson noted, it's a big call, and not as simple as it sounds.
The most obvious reason for a midseason change is poor performance. When a team consistently fails to meet expectations, the manager often bears the brunt of the blame. This is evident in the recent dismissal of Marti Cifuentes by Leicester City. However, simply firing the manager doesn't guarantee immediate success. It disrupts established team dynamics, forcing players to adapt to new tactics, coaching philosophies, and managerial styles. This transition period can lead to inconsistencies and impact team morale.
One potential benefit of a managerial change is what's known as the "new manager bounce". A fresh face can bring a new perspective, motivate the team, and renew confidence, leading to improved performance. New tactics can also catch opponents off guard, providing a temporary advantage. Furthermore, a new manager can represent a psychological "new beginning," disrupting a losing streak. However, this bounce is often short-lived.
Mid-season managerial changes have become increasingly common in football, driven by high stakes and the demand for instant results. However, the average tenure of managers has decreased, with clubs and fans often unwilling to give them time to implement their vision. This lack of job security hinders long-term planning, as managers prioritize short-term gains over building a sustainable team.
Replacing a manager midseason can be a good move when a team isn't performing well. However, club executives should plan the season well to avoid such situations. A study using data envelopment analysis (DEA) techniques found that while a mid-season change can improve sporting performance, it doesn't allow a team to perform as well as those that maintain managerial stability throughout the season.
Several factors influence the success of a mid-season coaching change. The new coach should ideally be an upgrade in terms of skill and experience, establish a good rapport with the players, and receive full support from the club's ownership to implement necessary changes. Time is also crucial, as the coach needs sufficient opportunity to implement their ideas and produce results.
The decision to replace a manager midseason requires careful consideration. While it can provide a temporary boost, it also carries risks of disruption and instability. Ultimately, long-term success depends on factors such as the quality of the replacement, the team's ability to adapt, and the club's overall planning and support. In some instances, a mid-season change can contribute to a championship cause. However, statistically, clubs that change managers mid-season tend to do a little better initially, but then performance degradation is worse.
