Scheduling is a weapon. In the high-stakes world of South Asian optics, where a handshake can launch a thousand op-eds and a snub can tank a currency, the calendar is the ultimate arbiter of intent. Prime Minister Modi just checked his watch, looked at Dhaka, and decided he had a much more interesting date in Mumbai.
The official line from South Block is a masterpiece of bureaucratic dry-heaving. A "scheduling conflict." A "prior commitment." The kind of excuse you give a distant cousin when you can’t make their wedding because you’d rather stay home and reorganize your sock drawer. But this isn't a wedding. It’s the return of Tarique Rahman, the man currently poised to lead Bangladesh out of its latest existential crisis. And instead of hopping on a short flight to Dhaka to play the supportive neighbor, Modi is heading to the humid bustle of Mumbai to grab crepes with Emmanuel Macron.
It’s a pivot that smells of cold, hard math.
Rahman represents a wild card. For years, he was the ghost in the machine, living in exile in London, a name whispered in connection to corruption cases and the kind of street-level politics that makes New Delhi’s policy wonks lose sleep. Now that he’s back and ready to take the oath, India is playing it cool. Too cool. By choosing a meeting with the French President over a front-row seat at Rahman’s inauguration, Modi is sending a signal that’s less of a diplomatic nudge and more of a shove.
The friction here isn't just about history; it’s about the hardware. Macron isn't coming to Mumbai to discuss the weather or the finer points of existentialism. He’s there to talk shops and silos. Specifically, the stalled $5.2 billion deal for additional Scorpene-class submarines and the long-simmering negotiations over the Jaitapur nuclear power project. These are the toys that define a regional power. A swearing-in ceremony in Dhaka offers a photo op. A boardroom in Mumbai offers a defense-industrial complex that actually works.
Think about the optics. On one hand, you have the messiness of a transition in Bangladesh—a country currently recalibrating its soul after a massive political upheaval. It’s a tech support nightmare. On the other, you have Macron, the poster boy for European strategic autonomy, ready to sign off on jet engine co-development. If you’re Modi, you don’t go to the party where you’re expected to bring the gift; you go to the meeting where you’re the one getting the upgrade.
There’s a specific kind of cruelty in the timing. Dhaka needs legitimacy. They need the "Big Brother" in the region to stand on the podium and say, we’re good. By staying in Mumbai, Modi is effectively leaving Rahman on read. It’s a calculated risk. The BNP has historically been seen as the less-than-friendly option for India, a party with a track record of leaning toward Islamabad when the mood strikes. India’s "Neighborhood First" policy has always been an "India First" policy dressed in a nicer suit.
Meanwhile, the Mumbai summit is being framed as a tech-defense masterclass. We’re talking about AI-driven maritime surveillance and underwater drones—the kind of high-margin gadgets that make a Prime Minister look like a visionary rather than a worried neighbor. The price tag for the French defense package is hovering around $6 billion, and in the ledger of global influence, that buys a lot more loyalty than a polite smile at a swearing-in.
The French connection also offers a buffer against the increasingly erratic signals coming from Washington and Beijing. Macron is the reliable dealer in a market full of flaky suppliers. If India wants to build its own "Silicon Valley of the Sea" in Mumbai, it needs French IP, not just French goodwill.
Rahman will likely take the oath to the sound of cameras clicking and supporters cheering. He’ll talk about a new era and a fresh start. But the empty chair reserved for the Indian delegation will be the loudest thing in the room. It’s a reminder that in the modern geopolitical stack, your ranking is determined by your utility. Right now, a French President with a suitcase full of reactor designs is simply more useful than a neighbor with a history of making things complicated.
India isn't just ghosting a leader; it’s prioritizing the hardware over the sentiment. It’s a move that says New Delhi is tired of the messy, analog drama of regional border politics. They’d much rather focus on the digital, high-speed future being sold in a Mumbai hotel suite.
One wonders how long a neighbor can be ignored before they start looking for a different kind of partner, one who doesn't have a better offer in another city.