Lula is feeling nostalgic. It’s a predictable move for a leader who’s spent more time in the spotlight than most of his peers have spent in office. During his recent trip to New Delhi, the Brazilian President started talking about 2005 like it was a holy relic. He called his visit back then an "economic turning point," a moment when Brazil and India finally looked at each other and realized they didn't need a permission slip from Washington or Brussels to grab a beer.

He calls it a brotherhood. "Democratic brothers of the Global South," to be exact. It’s the kind of phrase that sounds great on a teleprompter but feels a bit heavy when you actually try to lift it. Lula is selling a vision of a world where the North isn't the only one holding the remote control. It’s a nice dream. But dreams are expensive, and the logistics are a nightmare.

Back in 2005, the world was different. We were still obsessed with the original BRIC narrative—before South Africa joined and before the acronym became a synonym for "geopolitical group therapy." Back then, Brazil was riding a commodity high, and India was the world’s back office. Lula’s trip was supposed to ignite a South-South trade explosion. Looking at the numbers now, you’d be forgiven for asking if someone forgot to bring the matches.

While bilateral trade has climbed to around $15 billion, it’s still a rounding error compared to what both countries do with China. That’s the friction no one likes to bring up at the state dinners. You can talk about "democratic brotherhood" all you want, but the bank accounts usually tell a different story. Brazil still struggles with a 20% tariff on certain Indian industrial goods, and Indian exporters still look at the Mercosur trade bloc like a Rubik's cube that’s been glued shut.

The tech side of this bromance is where things get interesting, and by interesting, I mean messy. Both countries are obsessed with digital sovereignty. They’re tired of being the mines for Silicon Valley’s data extraction. Brazil has Pix, an instant payment system that actually works—unlike the clunky legacy systems in the States. India has UPI, a behemoth that’s basically rewired how a billion people buy a cup of chai.

Lula wants to bridge these two worlds. He sees a future where the Global South builds its own digital plumbing. It’s a smart play. If you control the rails, you control the train. But building a cross-border financial rail between Sao Paulo and Mumbai isn’t just about code. It’s about fighting the gravity of the US dollar. And so far, the dollar is still the strongest force in the room.

There’s also the matter of the hardware. Brazil wants to revive its manufacturing sector. India wants to be the world’s factory. They’re both chasing the same dream of semiconductor independence, but neither has the $10 billion lying around to build a cutting-edge fab without begging for foreign investment. It’s a classic catch-22. You want to be independent, but you need the "old guard" to fund your rebellion.

Lula’s rhetoric is designed to bypass this. He’s leaning into the "Global South" branding because it’s the only leverage he has left. By positioning Brazil and India as the dual engines of a new world order, he’s trying to force his way into the rooms where the big decisions are made. It’s a gamble. He’s betting that the nostalgia of 2005 can be converted into the hard currency of 2024.

But history doesn't usually repeat itself; it just gets remixed. The 2005 version of Lula was an insurgent hero. The 2024 version is a veteran politician trying to manage a polarized country while navigating a global tech cold war. He’s talking about brotherhood while India’s Modi is busy making "strategic partnerships" with everyone from Apple to the Kremlin.

It’s easy to hail ties when the cameras are on and the champagne is cold. It’s harder to fix the fact that it still takes longer to ship a container from Santos to Mumbai than it does to fly to the moon. Lula wants us to believe the "turning point" has finally arrived, nearly two decades late. Maybe it has. Or maybe it’s just another high-level press release in a world that’s already moved on to the next crisis.

If this "brotherhood" is so revolutionary, why are we still checking the exchange rates in Greenbacks every morning?