Bitcoin's price is currently navigating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, as traders eye potential end-of-month targets, including a return to $107,000 or even lower before a possible rebound. This price action comes as Bollinger Band readings reach historically tight levels, suggesting increased volatility is on the horizon.
At Wednesday's Wall Street open, Bitcoin remained rangebound as traders braced for a significant $17.5 billion options expiry. Data indicated that BTC/USD had reached $111,115 on Bitstamp before settling around $113,000, reflecting the ongoing struggle to establish a clear trend.
Market participants anticipate a fresh dip in BTC's price before a substantial recovery occurs. Crypto investor Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin typically bottoms in September and highlighted the upcoming Bitcoin options expiry with a "max pain" point at $107,000. Pillows suggested that Bitcoin's price historically moves towards this "max pain" level during such large expirations, implying a potential leg down before a reversal.
Popular trader BitBull drew comparisons to Bitcoin's performance in the first quarter of 2024, noting that the long-term trend remains upward, but corrections are possible. BitBull wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin retests the $103,000-$105,000 level before reversing. Prior to this, BitBull suggested that whales might attempt to drive the price below its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $111,900, potentially creating "max pain".
Daan Crypto Trades predicted a more volatile week based on historical context, while another analyst predicted that if $107K cracks, prices could decline to $96,000 before a reversal.
Adding to the discussion, Spreaker noted that traders are watching for a breakout past $123,600 due to the narrow Bollinger Bands. Citi has forecasted a $135,000 base case by year-end, with a moonshot bull case at $199,000. Finder's panel projects an average target of $145,167, with some even suggesting a high of $250,000 for 2025, while others warn of potential dips to $70,000.
CoinDCX analysts are closely monitoring the $100,000 to $120,000 range, suggesting that a clean break above $112,000 could lead to a run toward $115,500, especially with the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Conversely, a break below $107,000 could trigger a fall to $96,000 before the next major reversal. Changelly predicts that the average September value will remain near $117,000, eyeing the $116,000–$118,000 range.
Technical analysis from BTCC financial analyst Robert indicates that Bitcoin's price of $107,015 is above its 20-day moving average ($105,813), signaling sustained bullish momentum. The MACD histogram shows positive divergence, reinforcing the uptrend. With the price near the upper Bollinger Band ($110,294) and institutional accumulation rumors circulating, technical resistance at $110,000 appears to be the next key test.
However, other analysts suggest potential downside, noting that Bitcoin's price rally has stalled near $108,000, with a slight retreat to $107,472. They observe that the cryptocurrency continues to trade below $107,300, showing no meaningful reaction to economic announcements, suggesting traders remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
