India's smartphone exports have shown a robust surge, with an overall increase of 39% year-on-year, reaching $1.53 billion in August 2025. Notably, exports to the United States have doubled, hitting $965 million. This increase comes in contrast to some reports indicating a slowdown in exports.

Contrasting Reports and Industry Perspectives

Recent data released by the India Cellular & Electronics Association (ICEA) highlights this double-digit growth in smartphone exports. The ICEA has cautioned against drawing conclusions from month-on-month comparisons without considering sector-specific contexts. They emphasize that export trends should be analyzed across similar periods in different fiscal years to derive meaningful insights.

However, a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) paints a different picture, indicating a 58% drop in India's smartphone exports to the U.S. market, falling from $2.29 billion in May to $964.8 million in August. GTRI's analysis, based on data from the US Commerce Department, reveals a steady decline in smartphone shipments. This contraction is particularly concerning because smartphones are a tariff-free export.

Analyzing the Discrepancies

The contrasting data raises questions about the factors influencing smartphone export trends. ICEA attributes the dip in exports to new model introductions, plant retrofitting, and increased domestic demand during the festive season. Typically, August and early September experience the lowest smartphone exports due to customers delaying purchases in anticipation of new model launches in late September and October. Demand for older models also slows until discounts are offered.

On the other hand, GTRI suggests that the decline in exports warrants an urgent investigation to uncover the underlying reasons. They propose factors such as weakening U.S. industrial demand and supply chain disruptions as potential causes.

Broader Economic Impacts and Concerns

The GTRI report also highlights a broader decline in India's merchandise exports to the US, falling by 22.2% between May and August 2025. This decline is attributed to the steep escalation of American tariffs on Indian goods, which rose from 10% in early August to 50% by the end of the month.

Interestingly, the GTRI analysis reveals that tariff-exempt exports, including smartphones and pharmaceuticals, have experienced the most significant contraction. This is counterintuitive, as these products face zero US tariffs. The decline in tariff-free exports raises concerns about production shifts, component shortages, and supply chain disruptions affecting Indian assembly units.

Future Outlook

The differing perspectives from ICEA and GTRI underscore the complexities in analyzing trade data and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing export trends. While ICEA remains optimistic about the overall growth in smartphone exports, GTRI's report raises concerns about the potential impact of tariffs and other factors on India's export performance.

Going forward, it will be crucial to monitor export data closely and address the underlying issues that may be affecting India's trade with the US. As September marks the first full month with higher tariffs in place, the coming months will be critical in determining the long-term impact on India's exports.