Here's an analysis of the key overnight changes impacting the Indian stock market, incorporating the latest news and financial data:

1. Global Market Cues: Wall Street's Downturn

US stock market indices experienced a decline for the second consecutive session on Wednesday, prompting investors to book profits. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.37% to 46,121.28, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.28% to 6,637.98, and the Nasdaq Composite closed 0.33% lower at 22,497.86. These losses on Wall Street are expected to negatively impact the Indian stock market, potentially leading to a cautious opening.

2. Asian Market Performance

Asian markets presented a mixed picture on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.11%, while the Topix gained 0.18%. South Korea's Kospi eased 0.02%, and the Kosdaq dropped 0.27%. Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures indicated a lower opening. The mixed cues from Asian markets add to the uncertainty surrounding the opening of the Indian market.

3. GIFT Nifty Trends

The GIFT Nifty was trading around the 25,065 level, which is nearly a 47-point discount from the Nifty futures' previous close. This discount signals a potentially negative start for Indian stock market indices. The GIFT Nifty, formerly known as SGX Nifty, serves as an early indicator of Indian market sentiment, reflecting how international investors are reacting to global events before Indian markets open. It provides a global trading window for Indian equities, accessible to international investors.

4. Domestic Market Performance

On Wednesday, the Indian stock market extended its losses for the fourth consecutive session, influenced by widespread selling. The Sensex declined 0.47% to close at 81,715.63, while the Nifty 50 settled 0.45% lower at 25,056.90. Financial and IT shares led the losses amid concerns over US H-1B visa rules.

5. Core Sector Growth

India's eight key infrastructure sectors demonstrated strong growth, jumping to a 13-month high of 6.3% in August 2025. This positive data point could provide some support to the market, particularly for stocks in related sectors.

6. Rupee Volatility

The Indian rupee's weakness remains a concern, adding to the cautious tone in the market. On September 24, 2025, the rupee hit a fresh record low against the US dollar, settling at 88.75. Currency volatility is a key factor monitored by investors.

7. FII Outflows

Continued foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows are keeping the market on edge. Concerns over currency depreciation and global policy uncertainties are contributing to these outflows. High valuations and slow earnings growth have also prompted foreign investors to reduce their positions in Indian stocks.

8. Gold Prices

Gold prices have continued to surge in 2025 due to trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset, and its prices typically rise when stock markets decline during periods of economic uncertainty. On September 24, 2025, gold prices dropped from record highs due to profit-taking. Spot gold is projected to potentially extend its upward trajectory. A weaker rupee, coupled with strong demand during India's festive and wedding seasons, has supported domestic prices.

Overall, the Indian stock market is expected to open on a cautious note, influenced by weak global cues, mixed Asian market signals, and a discount in the GIFT Nifty. Investors are closely monitoring currency volatility, FII outflows, and global policy cues. While positive domestic factors like core sector growth and festive demand offer some support, the market is likely to remain range-bound in the near term.